Not a good buy right now: price action is in a strong short-term downtrend (bearish MA stack + worsening MACD), and pre-market is trading below the first key support (S1 ~187).
Oversold conditions (RSI-6 ~20) increase the odds of a short-term bounce, but the trend is still pointing lower, so the risk/reward for an immediate impatient entry is not attractive.
Practical trigger to turn this into a buy: stabilization/reclaim above ~187 first, then improving momentum toward the pivot ~205; otherwise the next downside magnet is ~176 (S2).
Momentum: MACD histogram at -3.148 and negatively expanding = selling momentum is still accelerating.
Oscillators: RSI_6 at ~19.97 = deeply oversold, which often precedes reflex rallies, but does not by itself signal trend reversal.
Key levels:
Resistance: Pivot ~205.35, then R1 ~223.46.
Support: S1 ~187.24 (already broken pre-market), then S2 ~176.05.
Pattern-based odds (similar candlesticks): ~80% chance of +1.33% next day, +4.03% next week, +4.9% next month (suggests bounce potential, but needs confirmation vs. current bearish momentum).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put/Call ratios are very low (OI 0.3; Volume 0.35) = call-heavy positioning (bullish bias/speculation).
Activity: Today’s option volume is elevated vs 30-day average (~124%), indicating increased attention after the earnings/guidance move.
Volatility: 30D IV ~39.9% with IV percentile ~63.2 (options pricing in above-normal uncertainty); IV rank ~13.6 suggests IV isn’t extreme vs the past year, but still elevated in absolute terms.
Takeaway: Options positioning leans bullish for a rebound, but doesn’t override the still-bearish spot momentum.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
revenue growth remained strong (+21.86% YoY to ~$248.2M), and gross margin improved (+2.48% YoY to ~61.46%).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
2026 revenue guidance ($1.10B–$1.12B, ~16.7% midpoint growth) came in below Street expectations and triggered the sharp drop; this is the dominant near-term overhang.
Profitability pressure: Net income and EPS fell sharply YoY in 2025/Q4 (Net income -61%, EPS -60.6%), which can weigh on sentiment until operating leverage re-accelerates.
Technical damage: price below near-term support with bearish momentum increases odds of additional downside before a durable base forms.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $248.19M, +21.86% YoY (growth still accelerating per analyst commentary).
Profitability: Net income $39.91M (-61.15% YoY) and EPS $1.10 (-60.57% YoY) indicate earnings compression despite revenue strength.
Margins: Gross margin improved to ~61.46% (+2.48% YoY), a constructive sign for the model longer-term even as bottom-line dipped this quarter.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend: Analysts broadly stayed constructive (Buy/Overweight/Outperform maintained), but price targets were cut across the board on 2026 guidance and software valuation pullback.
Recent target cuts (all 2026-01-30): KeyBanc to $255 (Overweight), DA Davidson to $275 (Buy), UBS to $260 (Buy), KBW to $290 (Outperform), Piper Sandler to $245 (Overweight).
Wall Street pros: resilient revenue growth, accelerating units, strong Q4 metrics (rev/margins/FCF beat), continued upmarket wins and upsell.
Wall Street cons: softer 2026 top-line guide, some “one-time” benefit in Q4 revenue, and reduced visibility/frameworks cited as investor pain points.
Wall Street analysts forecast APPF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APPF is 308.67 USD with a low forecast of 270 USD and a high forecast of 350 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast APPF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APPF is 308.67 USD with a low forecast of 270 USD and a high forecast of 350 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 177.360
Low
270
Averages
308.67
High
350
Current: 177.360
Low
270
Averages
308.67
High
350
KeyBanc
Overweight
downgrade
$270 -> $255
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
Reason
KeyBanc
Price Target
$270 -> $255
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on AppFolio to $255 from $270 to reflect the recent pullback in software valuations, while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes AppFolio reported good Q4 results, with revenue accelerating for a third straight quarter to 21.9% year-over-year and units accelerating a second straight quarter to 8%. That said, initial 2026 revenue growth guide of 16.7% was softer than the Street.
DA Davidson
Buy
downgrade
$325 -> $275
2026-01-30
Reason
DA Davidson
Price Target
$325 -> $275
2026-01-30
downgrade
Buy
Reason
DA Davidson lowered the firm's price target on AppFolio to $275 from $325 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Shares are down afterhours following weaker than expected value added services revenue and a prudent 2026 guide which overshadowed another strong quarter of unit growth and earnings upside, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company continues to benefit from favorable upmarket new business trends and ramping adoption of resident services and premium subscription tiers however, the firm added.
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