Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is below first support (S1 ~466) with bearish momentum (MACD histogram negative and worsening).
While the stock looks oversold short-term (RSI-6 ~24) and could bounce, headline/event risk (SEC/data scrutiny + recent short-report allegations) plus earnings on 2026-02-11 creates a poor immediate risk/reward for buying today.
If already holding, the fundamental growth/analyst support argues against panic-selling, but for a fresh buy “right now,” I would stay on the sidelines.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bearish in the near term; MACD histogram at -9.723 and negatively expanding signals selling pressure still building.
RSI: RSI_6 ~24 (oversold), which supports a potential reflex bounce, but oversold can persist in strong downtrends.
Moving Averages: Converging MAs suggest the stock may be trying to base, but no clear reversal confirmation yet.
Key levels: Price ~461 is below S1 (466.055); next support S2 ~437.416. Resistance/pivot overhead at ~512.41, then R1 ~558.77.
Probabilistic trend (pattern analogs): modest upside skew (next day +0.55%, next week +2.72%, next month +5.01%), but this conflicts with the currently deteriorating MACD.
Sentiment skew: Put/Call ratios at 0.75 (OI and volume) are moderately bullish (more call positioning than puts).
Volatility: 30D IV ~67.98 vs HV ~54.64 (options pricing in elevated moves); IV percentile ~36.8 and IV rank ~18.29 indicate IV is not extremely stretched relative to its own history.
Activity: Today’s option volume ~42.3k is ~63.95% of the 30-day average (lighter-than-normal participation), which weakens the strength of the sentiment read.
Net takeaway: Options positioning leans bullish, but conviction looks moderate given subdued volume.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
Multiple analysts argue the Google “Project Genie” narrative is not a real threat and could even increase the value of discovery/ads layers where APP operates.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
increases gap-risk; for an impatient buyer, this can work against immediate entry timing.
Gross margin: 87.56%, +2.39% YoY (already very high, still improving) — supports durability of the model if growth persists.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating/target trend: Predominantly bullish with multiple reiterated/raised targets; one notable upgrade (Needham Hold→Buy) and many high targets ($700–$860 range).
Key positives from Wall Street: confidence in AXON 2.0, expanding e-commerce/self-serve ad momentum, durable margins, and view that Google’s AI initiative is not disintermediating APP.
Key concerns from Wall Street: valuation/risk-reward flagged as more balanced by at least one Neutral (Goldman) and acknowledgment of tougher setup/expectations into upcoming quarters; headline/regulatory noise is a recurring theme.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge fund and insider activity described as neutral recently.
Wall Street analysts forecast APP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APP is 763.44 USD with a low forecast of 650 USD and a high forecast of 860 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
20 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast APP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APP is 763.44 USD with a low forecast of 650 USD and a high forecast of 860 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 375.230
Low
650
Averages
763.44
High
860
Current: 375.230
Low
650
Averages
763.44
High
860
Wedbush
Michael Pachter
Outperform -> NULL
downgrade
$800 -> $465
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
Reason
Wedbush
Michael Pachter
Price Target
$800 -> $465
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
downgrade
Outperform -> NULL
Reason
Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter lowered the firm's price target on AppLovin to $465 from $800 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm says the adjustment adjustment reflects a reset of valuation to account for softer industry sentiment and potential headwinds and a slight premium to AppLovin's two-year average. Wedbush believes AppLovin can retain its substantial moat in mobile gaming advertising and that current expansions into e-commerce and ultimately CTV should insulate it from long-term competitive pressure. That said, recent e-commerce data from competitors, along with regulatory headwinds, have led the firm to re-rate the multiple it applies to the stock.
Morgan Stanley
Matthew Cost
Overweight
maintain
$800
2026-02-04
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Matthew Cost
Price Target
$800
2026-02-04
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Cost reiterated an Overweight rating and $800 price target on AppLovin, noting the shares have fallen on fresh worries about disruption to the industry, particularly in mobile ad tech and video games. The stock has sold off on multiple investor concerns, creating a potential opportunity as shares now trade at roughly 15x 2027 EBITDA, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes ad tech's best executor is priced for significant risks, some of which are more salient than others.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for APP
