Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: price is in a short-term uptrend but sitting just below near-term resistance (R1 ~23.56) with no fresh news catalyst, while insider selling has surged.
Risk/reward is not compelling ahead of Q4 (QDEC) 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 (pre-market) with Street expecting a loss (Est. EPS -0.39).
Near-term bias: Technically constructive, but entry is less attractive directly under resistance unless it cleanly clears ~23.56.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Very call-heavy open interest (OI P/C = 0.22) and call-skewed volume (Vol P/C = 0.43) → options market sentiment is bullish.
Activity: Today’s options volume vs 30-day average is elevated (~7.24x), suggesting increased attention.
Volatility: 30D IV ~64.35 vs HV ~122.52 (IV below realized), IV percentile ~55 → not “cheap,” but not extreme; market is pricing moderate forward uncertainty.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
citing Empaveli traction; Wells remains Overweight; Stifel still Buy.
Institutional flow: Hedge funds are buying (reported buying up ~133% QoQ).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Insiders are selling aggressively (reported selling up ~2370% over the last month) — negative near-term signal.
Commercial pacing concern: Wells Fargo noted Empaveli C3G/IC-MPGN ramp is slower than expected and cut longer-term estimates.
Event risk: Upcoming QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 pre-market with expected EPS loss (Est. -0.39).
No supportive near-term news flow reported in the last week (no obvious immediate catalyst to force a breakout).
Profitability: Net income $215.7M, down -475.52% YoY and EPS 1.66, down -460.87% YoY → earnings power was materially worse versus prior year (suggesting volatility/one-offs or changing cost dynamics).
Gross margin: 94.65% (+14.10% YoY) → strong product economics, but bottom-line variability remains a key watch item into the next earnings print.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent changes skew positive but mixed on magnitude:
BofA (2026-01-21): Upgraded to Buy (PT $28) on Empaveli commercial potential and early launch metrics.
Wells Fargo (2026-01-20): Overweight maintained, PT cut to $26 on slower ramp assumptions.
Stifel (2025-12-19): Buy maintained, PT cut to $48.
Wall Street “pros”: improving demand narrative for Empaveli + multiple Buy/Overweight ratings.
Wall Street “cons”: multiple price target cuts and ramp skepticism from at least one major firm, implying execution risk remains central.
Wall Street analysts forecast APLS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APLS is 43.25 USD with a low forecast of 22 USD and a high forecast of 117.8 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast APLS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APLS is 43.25 USD with a low forecast of 22 USD and a high forecast of 117.8 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 22.560
Low
22
Averages
43.25
High
117.8
Current: 22.560
Low
22
Averages
43.25
High
117.8
Barclays
Equal Weight
initiated
$24
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$24
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
initiated
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays initiated coverage of Apellis with an Equal Weight rating and $24 price target. Barclays initiated coverage of 12 biotech stocks and assumed coverage of 11 with a positive view of the industry. The analyst likes the setup for the group in 2026. Many biotech stocks remain undervalued, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm expects continued mergers and acquisitions, "strong" underlying fundamentals, and less of a focus on drug pricing to act as "significant tailwinds."
BofA
Tazeen Ahmad
Neutral -> Buy
upgrade
$28
2026-01-21
Reason
BofA
Tazeen Ahmad
Price Target
$28
2026-01-21
upgrade
Neutral -> Buy
Reason
BofA analyst Tazeen Ahmad upgraded Apellis to Buy from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $28. The firm believes current valuation levels underappreciate the commercial potential of Empaveli in new rare kidney disease indications. Since approval in late July, Apellis has received 267 new patient start forms for Empaveli, representing 5% penetration of the 5,000 U.S. patient population, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BofA is "encouraged" by the "strong launch trajectory" and see rooms for continued estimate upside.
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