Should I Buy APLD? APLD 2026 Analysis - Intellectia AI™

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Should You Buy Applied Digital Corp (APLD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

34.950

1 Day change

25.52%

52 Week Range

42.270

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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APLD is a buy right now for an impatient investor because the broader trend remains bullish (strong moving-average stack) and sentiment/catalysts (hyperscaler lease talks + large signed/expected leases) are strongly supportive.
Near-term momentum is mixed (bearish MACD), so expect chop; however, the setup still favors upside toward $40.95 (R1) if price reclaims the $37.15 pivot.
Biggest near-term check is heavy insider selling and the company’s high leverage/debt narrative; those are the main reasons this isn’t a “no-brainer” buy.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, suggesting an ongoing uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.349 and expanding negative = short-term momentum is weakening (pullback/mean reversion risk).
RSI: RSI(6) ~51.8 (neutral) = not overbought; room for a move either way.
Key levels: Pivot 37.153 (important reclaim level). Support 33.352 (S1) then 31.004 (S2). Resistance 40.954 (R1) then 43.302 (R2).
Pattern-based forward look (provided): modest edge skewed positive over 1w/1m (next week +1.17%, next month +5.74% probabilities/expectations).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/flow is bullish: put-call ratios are low (more calls than puts) on both open interest (0.56) and volume (0.33).
Activity: Today’s options volume is ~121% of 30-day average, indicating elevated trader attention.
Volatility: IV30 ~118.97% vs HV ~97.52% (options priced rich); sentiment is bullish but expectations are for big moves (speculative environment).
Open interest: Calls dominate (call OI 514k vs put OI 289k), reinforcing upside bias.

Technical Summary

dotted line Image

Sell

3

Buy

10

Positive Catalysts

- Street support is strong: Multiple recent target raises and new Buy initiations reinforce institutional sponsorship potential.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insiders are selling aggressively: insider selling amount up ~4071% over the last month (can pressure sentiment near-term).
- Profitability pressure: rising costs and operating losses mentioned; near-term earnings quality is a concern despite revenue growth.
- Balance-sheet leverage: news cites debt burden > $2.6B, which can constrain flexibility and amplify downside on execution hiccups.
- Short-term technical momentum negative: bearish MACD can lead to pullbacks toward $33.35 support before the next leg higher.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q2
Revenue: $126.589M, +250.05% YoY (very strong top-line acceleration).
Profitability: Net income -$19.082M; EPS -$0.07 (losses persist).
Margins: Gross margin 20.57%, down ~44.91% YoY (scale/cost mix is currently hurting margin expansion).
Takeaway: growth is real and fast, but the current quarter shows the business is still absorbing cost/scale pressures while it ramps.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend: Clear wave of upgrades/initiations and price-target raises in January 2026, almost uniformly bullish.
Notable actions: Northland raised PT to $56 (Outperform) on hyperscaler discussions; Roth raised to $58 (Buy/top pick framing); B. Riley raised to $53 (Buy); Texas Capital initiated Buy $42; Arete initiated Buy $99; Freedom initiated Buy $36.
Wall Street pros view: APLD is increasingly viewed as a scalable AI infrastructure/data-center landlord with meaningful MW pipeline and potential hyperscaler lease wins.
Wall Street cons view (implied by notes/news): execution + funding/leveraging risk remains central (debt load and near-term losses), making the stock sensitive to any delay in contracts/energization timelines.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available (no politician signal to confirm or contradict the thesis).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

People Also Watch

11 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast APLD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APLD is 49.18 USD with a low forecast of 36 USD and a high forecast of 99 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

11 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 27.845

Low

36

Averages

49.18

High

99

Current: 27.845

Low

36

Averages

49.18

High

99

Northland

Mike Grondahl

Outperform

maintain

$40 -> $56

AI Analysis

2026-01-28

Reason

Northland

Mike Grondahl

Price Target

$40 -> $56

AI Analysis

2026-01-28

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Northland analyst Mike Grondahl raised the firm's price target on Applied Digital to $56 from $40 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares following "some exciting commentary" on the Q2 call that indicates that the company is currently in advanced discussions with a new top-of-the-stack IG hyperscaler for potentially three sites and 900 MW.

Texas Capital

Derrick Whitfield

Buy

initiated

$42

2026-01-20

Reason

Texas Capital

Derrick Whitfield

Price Target

$42

2026-01-20

initiated

Buy

Reason

Texas Capital analyst Derrick Whitfield initiated coverage of Applied Digital with a Buy rating and $42 price target. Applied Digital combines hyperscale development expertise, proprietary waterless cooling, and rapid deployment capabilities, notes the analyst, who views the company as well positioned to attain leases for a meaningful portion of its land and power portfolio of up to 4.3 gigawatts following recent industry and Trump Administration announcements.

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