Should I Buy APEI? APEI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy American Public Education Inc (APEI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

44.890

1 Day change

1.38%

52 Week Range

45.690

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Buy now: price (41.59 pre-market) is sitting near first support (40.81) while longer-term trend remains constructive (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), offering a favorable “buy-near-support” entry.
Upside skew is supported by multiple recent price-target raises (latest: $47 and $53) and a broadly bullish Street view.
Biggest near-term headwinds are weakening momentum (MACD negative/expanding) and heavy insider selling, but they’re not strong enough (given current support + trend structure) to override the buy setup for an impatient buyer.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Medium/long-term bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200).
Momentum: Bearish short-term (MACD histogram -0.133 and negatively expanding), implying some near-term softness is still possible.
RSI: Neutral (RSI_6 ~47.8), no overbought/oversold edge.
Key levels: Pivot 42.54 overhead (needs reclaim for momentum), resistance 44.27 / 45.34; support 40.81 then 39.74.
Practical read: current price is below pivot but near support, consistent with a buyable dip within an uptrend if support holds.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (Open Interest): Put/Call OI = 1.26 (more puts than calls outstanding) → mildly defensive/cautious sentiment.
Flow (Volume): Put volume essentially 0 vs call volume 20 on the day shown → limited data, but that day’s activity leaned calls.
Volatility: IV 30d 48.3 vs HV 40.2; IV percentile 22 / IV rank 10.92 → options are not priced at extremes; sentiment not panicked.
Participation: today vs 30-day avg volume 21.74% (quiet), but open interest vs avg 146% suggests existing positioning is notable even if daily trading is light.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- No negative news flow recently (no notable news in the last week), reducing event headline risk.
- Street commentary highlights long-term growth opportunity and execution (investor tour feedback; FY29 targets; operating leverage story at RU).
- Pattern-based projection (similar candlesticks): favors small positive drift next day/week (+0.71% / +1.5%).
- Fundamentals backdrop: improving margins and profitability (see financials) supports re-rating narrative mentioned by analysts.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insiders are selling and selling accelerated +235.2% over the last month (clear negative signal vs near-term confidence).
- Technical momentum is currently softening (MACD negative and worsening), which can cap upside until reclaimed.
- Option open-interest skew (put-heavy OI) suggests the market remains somewhat hedged/cautious.
- Hedge funds: Neutral, no strong “smart money” accumulation signal in the last quarter.
- Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available (no supportive signal).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $163.215M, +6.59% YoY (steady top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income $5.56M, +660.6% YoY; EPS $0.30, +650% YoY (strong improvement off prior base).
Gross margin: 51.82%, up 9.23% YoY (clear margin expansion trend).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: multiple firms raised price targets and maintained bullish stances, indicating strengthening Street conviction.
Key updates: Lake Street $47 (Buy) from $40 (2026-01-30); B. Riley $53 (Buy) from $40 (2026-01-27); Northland Top Pick / Outperform $46 (2026-01-07); DA Davidson $43 (Buy) (2025-11-24). Truist remains Hold but raised PT (35→38).
Wall Street pros: accelerating revenue/margin outlook, operating leverage at RU, cash generation potential, and multi-year growth levers.
Wall Street cons: acknowledgment of potential near-term noise (e.g., shutdown-related commentary) and lingering sensitivity around RU execution, reflected by Truist’s Hold.

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast APEI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for APEI is 41.17 USD with a low forecast of 38 USD and a high forecast of 46 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 44.280

Low

Averages

41.17

High

Current: 44.280

Low

Averages

41.17

High

Lake Street

Buy

maintain

$40 -> $47

AI Analysis

2026-01-30

Reason

Lake Street

Price Target

$40 -> $47

AI Analysis

2026-01-30

maintain

Buy

Reason

Lake Street raised the firm's price target on American Public Education to $47 from $40 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. After having recently hosted an investor tour and management talks at the company's Rasmussen University - Central Pasco campus, the firm came away with a better appreciation for the company's long-term growth opportunity, the analyst tells investors.

B. Riley

Griffin Boss

Buy

maintain

$40 -> $53

2026-01-27

Reason

B. Riley

Griffin Boss

Price Target

$40 -> $53

2026-01-27

maintain

Buy

Reason

B. Riley analyst Griffin Boss raised the firm's price target on American Public Education to $53 from $40 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The Q4 results are expected to align with guidance, while longer-term forecasts point to accelerating revenue and margin expansion, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Despite potential near-term noise from a possible government shutdown, strong execution, ambitious FY29 targets, and robust projected cash generation underpin a positive medium-term outlook, B. Riley adds.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for APEI

Unlock Now

APEI Should I Buy

APEI Should I Buy

Should You Buy American Public Education Inc (APEI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch