Should I Buy AOSL? AOSL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Ltd (AOSL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

21.360

1 Day change

-5.11%

52 Week Range

46.650

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now (pre-earnings tomorrow after-hours, recent guidance/analyst resets, and momentum is not supportive).
For an impatient buyer, the risk/reward is unfavorable at $22.33 pre-market because downside to support ($21.47) is close and earnings can easily gap the stock.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Politician/congress activity: no recent congress trading data available; no notable insider/hedge-fund trend detected (both neutral).

Technical Analysis

Price context: $22.33 pre-market is slightly below the pivot (22.448), implying mild near-term weakness.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0324) and negatively expanding → bearish momentum building.
RSI(6) ~50.2 (neutral) → no oversold bounce signal.
Moving averages: converging → indecision/transition phase, but MACD tilt favors downside.
Levels to watch: Support S1 21.471 (then S2 20.867); Resistance R1 23.425 (then R2 24.029). A clean reclaim above 22.45–23.43 would be needed to improve the setup.
Pattern-based expectation: similar-pattern stats imply mild bearish bias over the next week (about -2.83%).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: OI put/call at 0.6 suggests more calls than puts outstanding (mildly bullish positioning).
Flow today: volume put/call at 0.1 (calls dominating) but total volume is very low (22 contracts), so sentiment signal is weak.
Volatility: 30D IV ~73.9 vs historical vol ~118 → options imply less future volatility than realized (IV not “extreme”);
IV rank ~25 and IV percentile ~44 → not a standout fear/hedge regime; more “mid-range” pricing.
Net: options lean bullish on calls, but the small volume + imminent earnings makes it unreliable as a standalone buy signal.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-05 after hours; expectations look modest (EPS est. around -0.04), so a beat or better outlook could move shares up.
- Options positioning shows call-heavy interest (OI PCR 0.6), which can align with upside speculation.
- If price holds above 21.47 support and reclaims 22.45 pivot, a quick rebound toward 23.43 is technically plausible.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings risk is immediate (tomorrow after-hours): gap risk is high for an impatient entry.
- Technical momentum is weakening (MACD negative and worsening) while RSI provides no oversold support.
- Recent analyst actions emphasize disappointing guidance/near-term softness and margin concerns.
- Similar-pattern stats show a bearish tilt over the next week (~-2.83%).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q1.
Revenue: $182.5M, up only ~0.34% YoY → essentially flat growth.
Profitability: net income fell to -$2.12M (more negative YoY); EPS -0.07 (down ~22% YoY).
Margins: gross margin 23.48%, down ~4.08% YoY → margin compression is a key headwind.
Overall: growth is not accelerating and profitability/margins are deteriorating into the next catalyst (earnings).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Clear negative trend: multiple firms cut price targets on 2025-11-06.
Stifel: PT cut to $24 from $29, maintained Hold; cited disappointing guidance and margin concerns.
Benchmark: PT cut to $25 from $32, maintained Buy; cited seasonal softness/tariff pull-forward effects.
B. Riley: downgraded to Neutral from Buy; PT cut to $24 from $40; flagged weaker near-term AI/earnings power and concern about path back to profitability.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
- Pros: some still see longer-term upside (one Buy remains) and cash/JV-related positives were noted.
- Cons: near-term conditions, guidance reset, and profitability/margin pressure dominate—net view is cautious/neutral leaning.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AOSL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AOSL is 24.33 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 22.510

Low

Averages

24.33

High

Current: 22.510

Low

Averages

24.33

High

Stifel

Tore Svanberg

Hold

downgrade

$24 -> $22

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Stifel

Tore Svanberg

Price Target

$24 -> $22

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

downgrade

Hold

Reason

Stifel analyst Tore Svanberg lowered the firm's price target on Alpha & Omega to $22 from $24 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares.

B. Riley

Craig Ellis

Neutral

downgrade

$24 -> $19

2026-02-06

New

Reason

B. Riley

Craig Ellis

Price Target

$24 -> $19

2026-02-06

New

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis lowered the firm's price target on Alpha & Omega to $19 from $24 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Alpha & Omega's Q1 results showed upside in sales but missed on gross margin and EPS, while the Q2 guide highlighted potential CY26 growth in PC and smartphone content, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Near-term EPS pressure is expected due to a 25% year over year increase in R&D to expand advanced compute and AI socket initiatives, with returns anticipated as revenues ramp in CY27, the firm says.

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AOSL Should I Buy

AOSL Should I Buy

Should You Buy Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Ltd (AOSL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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