Buy now: momentum is improving (MACD expanding), price is above the pivot (341.28), options positioning is strongly call-skewed, and the latest quarter showed strong EPS/net income growth.
Near-term ceiling is close (R1 ~353.56), but pre-market at 346.84 still offers room for an upside push; sentiment from options + recent PT hikes supports buying rather than hesitating.
Key watch levels: downside risk becomes more meaningful on a break below ~341 (pivot), then ~329 (S1).
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (1.128) and expanding, signaling strengthening bullish momentum.
RSI: RSI(6) ~59.5 (neutral-to-bullish); not overbought, so upside continuation is still plausible.
Moving averages: converging MAs suggest a transition phase; with positive MACD, bias tilts upward rather than downward.
Levels: Pivot 341.28 (price above = bullish bias). Resistance at 353.56 (R1) then 361.14 (R2). Support at 329.01 (S1) then 321.42 (S2).
Pattern-based probabilistic trend (given): mild near-term drift (next week slightly negative), but better 1-month outlook (+2.37%), aligning with a buy-for-follow-through stance.
Activity: Today’s volume vs 30D avg is elevated (11.52x), suggesting increased attention/flow.
Volatility: IV30 ~22.41 vs HV ~21.92 (slight premium). IV percentile ~65.6 suggests IV is somewhat elevated vs its recent range—often consistent with active demand into/after catalysts.
Skew: Call OI (8717) meaningfully exceeds put OI (2265), reinforcing constructive sentiment.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
2
Positive Catalysts
indicating improving Street confidence post-results.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Smart money flow: Hedge funds are selling, with selling amount up ~143.78% over the last quarter (notable sentiment headwind).
Industry cycle risk: multiple analysts highlight softening P&C pricing / organic growth headwinds, which can pressure broker growth expectations.
Revenue nuance: Q4 revenue missed some forecasts despite EPS beat; if rate/renewal tailwinds fade, topline may remain a debate.
Bear view on valuation/upside: BofA maintains Underperform with a $326 target, implying downside vs current price area.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $4.30B, +3.69% YoY (steady but not explosive growth).
Profitability: Net income $1.693B, +136.45% YoY (very strong improvement).
EPS: 7.82, +138.41% YoY (sharp acceleration).
Margins: Gross margin 45.35%, +4.78% YoY (supports quality of earnings).
Takeaway: fundamentals skew positive (profit + margin expansion), consistent with buying strength rather than fading it.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets broadly moved up after results (Citi to $412; Cantor to $412; UBS to $385), while a few firms trimmed targets earlier in the cycle-softening narrative (e.g., JPM lowered to $406; Goldman lowered to $395; Wells slightly lowered).
Notable change: Goldman removed Aon from its US Conviction List (a sentiment downgrade, though not necessarily a Sell).
Wall Street pros: strong execution, resilient broker model, potential upside to targets/estimates, post-earnings confidence.
Wall Street cons: softening P&C cycle could dampen organic growth and margins; at least one prominent bearish stance (BofA Underperform, $326).
Net view: Street is mixed but tilts constructive (more Buy/Overweight-style commentary and multiple PT raises vs one clear bear), supporting a buy at current levels.
Wall Street analysts forecast AON stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AON is 396.2 USD with a low forecast of 328 USD and a high forecast of 449 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AON stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AON is 396.2 USD with a low forecast of 328 USD and a high forecast of 449 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 343.360
Low
328
Averages
396.2
High
449
Current: 343.360
Low
328
Averages
396.2
High
449
Mizuho
Yaron Kinar
Neutral
maintain
$387 -> $398
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
Reason
Mizuho
Yaron Kinar
Price Target
$387 -> $398
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Mizuho analyst Yaron Kinar raised the firm's price target on Aon plc to $398 from $387 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the earnings print.
Citi
Matthew Heimermann
Buy
maintain
$402 -> $412
2026-02-03
Reason
Citi
Matthew Heimermann
Price Target
$402 -> $412
2026-02-03
maintain
Buy
Reason
Citi analyst Matthew Heimermann raised the firm's price target on Aon plc to $412 from $402 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm upped the company's estimates citing confidence in its execution and potential upside to its targets.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for AON
