Should I Buy AOMR? AOMR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc (AOMR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

8.930

1 Day change

1.71%

52 Week Range

10.540

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: momentum is still bearish (MACD histogram negative and worsening) and there are no Intellectia buy signals to override that.
Best near-term setup is “wait, don’t chase”: a cleaner buy would be either a bounce off support ($8.82–$8.70) or a breakout/hold above resistance ($9.22+)—current pre-market ($9.08) is stuck near the pivot.
Risk/reward is only mildly positive from here: UBS PT $9.75 implies limited upside vs. weakening fundamentals.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.0176 and negatively expanding = bearish momentum strengthening.
RSI (6): 39.1 = weak/soft momentum (not oversold enough to signal a high-conviction rebound).
Moving averages: converging = indecision/transition, but with bearish MACD it leans downside until proven otherwise.
Key levels: Pivot $9.022 (price $9.08 slightly above pivot). Resistance: $9.221 then $9.344. Support: $8.824 then $8.701.
Pattern-based odds: ~70% chance of -0.4% next day; +1.88% next week; +4.2% next month (near-term chop/down risk before potential drift higher).

Positive Catalysts

- Statistical/pattern read suggests potential upside over 1 week to 1 month (+1.88% to +4.2%).
- Price is holding just above the pivot ($9.022); a break and hold above $9.221 could trigger a short-term technical improvement.
- Analyst target still above market (UBS $9.75 vs. ~$9.08 pre-market), implying modest upside if sentiment improves.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: No signal on given stock today (both AI Stock Picker and SwingMax show no active buy), reducing conviction for an “impatient buy-now.”
- Bearish momentum is strengthening (MACD histogram below zero and expanding), which often precedes additional weakness.
- No fresh news catalysts in the last week to reverse sentiment.
- Institutional/insider tone is neutral (no supportive accumulation trend).
- Near-term probability skew points to a slight next-day decline (-0.4%).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $41.38M, down 26.47% YoY (meaningful contraction).
Net income: $11.36M, down 63.55% YoY (profitability deterioration).
EPS: $0.46, down 64.34% YoY.
Gross margin: 36.01, down 46.46% YoY (material margin compression).
Overall: growth trends are negative, which makes it harder to justify buying without a clear technical reversal signal.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

UBS (2025-11-18): Neutral maintained; price target lowered to $9.75 from $10.
Trend: modestly negative (target cut) and still not a Buy rating.
Wall Street-style pros: target above current price suggests limited upside potential if conditions stabilize.
Cons: Neutral stance + lowered PT aligns with weakening fundamentals and supports a “not a buy-now” view.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AOMR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AOMR is 9.75 USD with a low forecast of 9.75 USD and a high forecast of 9.75 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 8.780

Low

9.75

Averages

9.75

High

9.75

Current: 8.780

Low

9.75

Averages

9.75

High

9.75

UBS

Doug Harter

Neutral

downgrade

$10

AI Analysis

2025-11-18

Reason

UBS

Doug Harter

Price Target

$10

AI Analysis

2025-11-18

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

UBS analyst Doug Harter lowered the firm's price target on Angel Oak Mortgage REIT to $9.75 from $10 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

UBS

Doug Harter

Neutral

maintain

$10

2025-07-10

Reason

UBS

Doug Harter

Price Target

$10

2025-07-10

maintain

Neutral

Reason

UBS analyst Doug Harter raised the firm's price target on Angel Oak Mortgage REIT to $10.50 from $10 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

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AOMR Should I Buy

AOMR Should I Buy

Should You Buy Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc (AOMR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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