Should I Buy AMR? AMR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

206.320

1 Day change

2.26%

52 Week Range

253.820

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: price (~210.66) is below the pivot (221.17) with bearish momentum signals and options sentiment skewed to puts.
For an impatient buyer, the risk/reward is unfavorable here: upside is capped by resistance (221–238) while downside risk to support (204 then 193) is meaningful.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-4.966) and still below zero (bearish), though the negative momentum is contracting (selling pressure easing but not reversed).
RSI(6) ~40.3: weak/soft momentum; not oversold enough to qualify as a strong dip-buy setup.
Moving averages: converging MAs suggest consolidation after a down/weak phase rather than a confirmed uptrend.
Key levels: Pivot 221.17 (bull/bear line). Support S1 204.01 then S2 193.40. Resistance R1 238.34 then R2 248.95.
Near-term bias: pattern-based stats imply only a modest edge over a month (+2.19%) and slightly negative/flat near-term, which doesn’t justify chasing at ~210 with momentum still bearish.

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Open interest put/call at 1.05 is slightly put-heavy (mildly bearish positioning).
Flow today: Put/call volume ratio 1.74 is notably bearish (more put demand than calls).
Volatility: 30D IV ~60.4 vs HV ~56.0 (options pricing in elevated moves); IV percentile ~58 suggests mid-range richness, not an obvious cheap-vol environment.
Activity: today volume 258 is below the 5D/10D averages (321.6/459.1), so bearish skew exists but without unusually heavy participation.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- If coal pricing stabilizes/improves, operating leverage could rebound quickly given the sector’s cyclicality.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst risk ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-03-03 pre-market, with EPS estimate at -1.34 (setup for volatility and downside if guidance disappoints).
- Q4 2025 expected net loss (~$17.3M) and YoY revenue decline reinforces weakening cycle conditions.
- Options market is leaning bearish (put-heavy volume), aligning with the weak technical posture.
- Analyst stance is Hold with a price target below current price, limiting near-term bullish validation.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $519.06M, -15.92% YoY (top-line contraction).
Profitability: Net income and EPS dropped to ~~0 (-100% YoY), and the company guided/flagged an expected Q4 net loss (~~$17.3M) in recent news.
Margins: Gross margin improved to 7.81% (+41.49% YoY), but the absolute margin level remains modest and didn’t prevent profit deterioration.
Balance sheet (from news): no debt and substantial cash/liquidity is a key stabilizer, but it doesn’t offset near-term earnings pressure for an immediate buy decision.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Most recent update: Jefferies (2026-01-20) raised PT to $205 from $165 but maintained Hold.
Implication: even after the target raise, PT (~~205) sits below the current price (~~210.66), signaling limited upside per that analyst.
Wall Street pros: strong liquidity/no debt; shareholder-return discipline.
Wall Street cons: earnings and revenue weakening in the latest quarter cycle; near-term estimate is negative and upcoming earnings date adds event risk.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders show neutral recent trend (no strong smart-money accumulation signal).

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AMR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMR is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 201.760

Low

Averages

High

Current: 201.760

Low

Averages

High

B. Riley

Buy

Neutral

downgrade

$203

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

Reason

B. Riley

Price Target

$203

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

downgrade

Buy

Neutral

Reason

B. Riley downgraded Alpha Metallurgical to Neutral from Buy with a $203 price target.

B. Riley

Buy

Neutral

downgrade

$203

2026-02-04

New

Reason

B. Riley

Price Target

$203

2026-02-04

New

downgrade

Buy

Neutral

Reason

B. Riley downgraded Alpha Metallurgical to Neutral from Buy with a $203 price target. Though Alpha Metallurgical has made strides in cutting costs to improve profitability, the firm would look for a more attractive entry point or sustained improvement in U.S. met indices, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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AMR Should I Buy

AMR Should I Buy

Should You Buy Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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