Should I Buy AMPY? AMPY 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Amplify Energy Corp (AMPY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

5.180

1 Day change

6.80%

52 Week Range

6.550

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now for a tactical upside attempt: trend is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) with a positive, expanding MACD histogram.
Price (4.95) is sitting just above the pivot (4.841) with nearby resistance at 5.06; a push through 5.06 can extend toward 5.196.
Options positioning is structurally bullish (very low open-interest put/call), and the lone recent Wall St. update is a Buy with a 7.25 target.
Not a “quality fundamental” buy right now: latest quarter shows revenue decline and a sizable net loss; this is a momentum/sentiment-led trade rather than fundamentals-led.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available (no influential-figure signal to confirm or fade).

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), supporting continuation bias.
Momentum: MACD histogram at 0.0393 and expanding above zero = improving upside momentum.
RSI (6): 59.829 (neutral-to-bullish), not overbought—room for continuation without immediate mean-reversion pressure.
Levels: Pivot 4.841 (near-term line in the sand). Resistance R1 5.06 then R2 5.196. Supports S1 4.621 then S2 4.485.
Pattern-based stats (similar candlesticks): 60% odds of +2.97% next day; +5.11% next week; +5.42% next month (supports a near-term long bias).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Open interest put/call ratio 0.2 = calls dominate outstanding positioning (bullish underlying bias).
Flow today: Option volume put/call ratio 1.87 with heavy volume vs 30D average (today volume 5,828; ~186% of avg) = near-term hedging/speculative puts increased despite bullish OI backdrop (mixed/2-speed sentiment).
Volatility: IV 30d ~76.97 vs HV ~77.76 (roughly in line). IV percentile 74.8 = options pricing elevated vs its own history, implying the market is pricing meaningful move risk (good for traders, but it also signals uncertainty).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Options OI skew: very low OI put/call (0.
suggests bullish longer-positioning remains in place.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Fundamentals are currently deteriorating: YoY revenue down and profitability deeply negative (latest quarter shows sizable net loss).
- No supportive news flow in the last week (less narrative fuel for immediate upside).
- Options flow mixed: despite bullish OI structure, put-heavy volume today can indicate short-term caution/hedging.
- Overhead resistance is close (5.06 / 5.196), so upside may require a clean breakout to avoid choppy price action.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $66.396M, -4.96% YoY (top-line contraction).
Net income: -$20.966M, down -197.20% YoY (loss widened materially).
EPS: -0.52, down -196.30% YoY.
Gross margin: 32.8%, down -19.61% YoY (margin compression).
Takeaway: growth trend is negative in the most recent quarter; the bull case leans more on balance-sheet/asset-sale execution and field development impact than current-quarter earnings power.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Most recent update (2025-11-12): Alliance Global raised price target to $7.25 from $6 and maintained a Buy.
Rationale from analyst: asset sales expected to eliminate current debt load and provide capital to accelerate Beta field development; sees additional upside even after a sharp prior-week gain.
Wall Street pros view: Upside tied to deleveraging + development acceleration improving operating performance.
Wall Street cons view: Above-average leverage mentioned (mitigated if asset sales fully execute) and current financial performance trend is weak, so execution risk remains the key debate.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AMPY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMPY is 9.13 USD with a low forecast of 7.25 USD and a high forecast of 11 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 4.850

Low

7.25

Averages

9.13

High

Current: 4.850

Low

7.25

Averages

9.13

High

Alliance Global

Buy

maintain

AI Analysis

2025-11-12

Reason

Alliance Global

Price Target

AI Analysis

2025-11-12

maintain

Buy

Reason

Alliance Global raised the firm's price target on Amplify Energy to $7.25 from $6 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. While financial leverage is above average, the announced asset sales should completely eliminate the current debt load and generate enough capital to accelerate development of the Beta field, which should have a positive impact on operating performance, the analyst tells investors. The firm sees additional upside potential despite the recent gain of close to 30% over the past week, the analyst added.

Alliance Global Partners

NULL

Buy

initiated

2025-06-30

Reason

Alliance Global Partners

Price Target

2025-06-30

initiated

NULL

Buy

Reason

Alliance Global Partners resumed coverage of Amplify Energy with a Buy rating and $6 price target. Amplify's financial leverage is above average and commodity price volatility is also above average, but given the stock price weakness with shares down 45% this year, the firm views the risk/reward profile as "positively skewed" and believes that the current valuation is attractive, the analyst tells investors.

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AMPY Should I Buy

AMPY Should I Buy

Should You Buy Amplify Energy Corp (AMPY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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