Not a good buy right now: price is in a strong short-term downtrend (bearish moving averages + worsening MACD) despite being extremely oversold.
A reflex bounce is possible (RSI12), but the tape is still weak and the next technical support sits lower (7.69), so chasing here is unfavorable for an impatient buyer.
Options positioning is very call-heavy (bullish sentiment), but that alone isn’t enough to override the bearish trend without a clear reversal trigger.
Overall: avoid initiating a new long position today; this is a “wait for stabilization” setup rather than an immediate high-conviction buy.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.187 and negatively expanding → downside momentum is strengthening, not bottoming yet.
Oscillators: RSI(6) ~12.6 → extremely oversold, which often precedes a short bounce, but can stay oversold in strong downtrends.
Levels: Current ~8.23 is below S1 (8.352); next support S2 ~7.688. Resistance/pivot overhead: Pivot 9.427 then R1 10.503.
Pattern-based odds (given): ~70% chance of ~+1.06% next day, ~+0.5% next week, but ~-2.63% next month → short-term bounce risk-on, medium-term still pressured.
Near-term technical downside risk remains to ~7.69 support if selling persists into earnings.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $88.56M, +17.74% YoY → clear growth re-acceleration vs many small-cap software peers.
Profitability trend improving but still loss-making: Net income -$23.99M (loss narrowed ~42% YoY improvement); EPS -0.18 (improved ~28.6% YoY).
Gross margin: 73.95%, down ~1.51% YoY → slight compression to monitor (could reflect pricing/hosting costs or mix).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Street tone remains broadly positive on ratings (Overweight/Outperform/Buy), but price targets have been trimmed.
Most recent: Piper Sandler kept Overweight but cut PT to $12 from $16 (2026-02-02), citing software-space pessimism and multiple ceilings.
Baird: Outperform with PT moves around $14–$15 (raised to $15 on 2025-12-19; previously cut to $14 after Q3).
BTIG: initiated Buy with $14 PT (2025-12-16), constructive on GenAI strategy and “better together” platform story.
Wall Street pros/cons summary: Pros = improving growth/exec + GenAI/product catalysts and improving loss profile; Cons = sector multiple pressure narrative and current weak tape.
Wall Street analysts forecast AMPL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMPL is 15 USD with a low forecast of 13 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AMPL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMPL is 15 USD with a low forecast of 13 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 7.310
Low
13
Averages
15
High
18
Current: 7.310
Low
13
Averages
15
High
18
Piper Sandler
Billy Fitzsimmons
Overweight -> NULL
downgrade
$16 -> $12
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
Reason
Piper Sandler
Billy Fitzsimmons
Price Target
$16 -> $12
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
downgrade
Overweight -> NULL
Reason
Piper Sandler analyst Billy Fitzsimmons lowered the firm's price target on Amplitude to $12 from $16 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following a transfer of coverage. The firm downgraded three names and cut price targets across the platforms and apps group, saying "seat-compression and vibe coding narratives could set a ceiling on multiples." Piper is not making a call on the Q4 reports. Rather, the analyst has mixed views on the software space despite share declines in the past 12 months. The firm expects continued "pessimism" around software and recommends investors focus on the hyperscaler, consumption and vertical sub-sectors. Piper's top picks are Microsoft and ServiceTitan.
Baird
NULL -> Outperform
maintain
$14 -> $15
2025-12-19
Reason
Baird
Price Target
$14 -> $15
2025-12-19
maintain
NULL -> Outperform
Reason
Baird raised the firm's price target on Amplitude to $15 from $14 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following meetings with management.
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