Should I Buy AMLX? AMLX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc (AMLX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

13.980

1 Day change

7.62%

52 Week Range

17.490

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the setup is mixed-to-weak near-term (bearish MACD momentum + heavy insider selling + negative/uncertain news flow).
Upside is largely dependent on a major 2026 clinical catalyst (Phase 3 LUCIDITY data), which is too far out to justify chasing today without a fresh technical trigger.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Practical takeaway: avoid initiating new longs until price reclaims the pivot (~15.58) with improving momentum (MACD turning up) or until a nearer catalyst materially improves sentiment.

Technical Analysis

Price: 14.5 (closed), sitting just above first support S1 ~14.27; below pivot ~15.58, implying the stock is still in a “below-resistance” posture.
Trend/Moving averages: bullish stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests the broader trend has improved, but it’s currently struggling at resistance.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0598 and negatively expanding = bearish momentum building short-term.
RSI(6): 46.53 (neutral) = no oversold edge; momentum isn’t stretched enough to favor an immediate bounce.
Levels to watch: Support 14.27 then 13.45; Resistance/pivot 15.58 then 16.90. From an entry standpoint, the chart looks better on a clean move back above ~15.6 than it does at 14.5 with weakening MACD.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Put/Call ratios are low (OI PCR 0.3; Volume PCR 0.27) = options market is skewed bullish (more call interest/volume than puts).
Volatility: 30D IV 94.44 vs historical vol 59.79 (IV elevated); IV percentile 66.4 suggests options are priced rich vs typical levels.
Activity: today volume 93 vs 30D avg ratio 38.59 (interpretation: notable activity relative to typical), which can align with event/speculation, but also means premiums are expensive for new option buyers.
Takeaway: sentiment is call-leaning, but elevated IV implies the market is already paying up for movement—less attractive for “buying” optionality unless you have a strong near-term catalyst view.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Street sees meaningful upside optionality tied to avexitide: pivotal Phase 3 LUCIDITY trial remains the core thesis, with results expected in Q3 2026 (major re-rating catalyst if positive).
- Cash runway commentary (per analyst notes) extending to 2028 reduces near-term financing fear.
- Analyst stance remains positive overall (Buy/Outperform ratings with targets above current price).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insider selling is a major near-term sentiment overhang: data shows insider selling up sharply (reported +4098% over the last month), and news cites Joshua B. Cohen selling 138,167 shares (~$1.9M) alongside option exercise.
- Legal/investigation headlines (Halper Sadeh LLC investigating potential fiduciary duty breaches) create headline risk and can cap rallies.
- Technical momentum is deteriorating short-term (MACD negative and expanding) while price sits below the pivot resistance (~15.58).
- Next meaningful biotech catalyst is distant (2026), increasing the chance of drift/chop rather than an immediate “get paid fast” move.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 0, down -100% YoY (no operating revenue base right now).
Net income: -34.386M, down -52.7% YoY (losses widened vs prior year quarter).
EPS: -0.37, down -65.42% YoY.
Gross margin: 0, down -100% YoY (consistent with no revenue).
Near-term event: next earnings listed as QDEC 2025 on 2026-03-04 (pre-market) (Est. EPS -0.30), which can create a volatility window but doesn’t fix the core “pre-catalyst biotech” timeline by itself.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst actions remain constructive:
- 2025-11-07: H.C. Wainwright raised PT to $20 (from $16), Buy.
- 2025-11-10: Mizuho raised PT to $18 (from $16), Outperform.
- 2025-12-19: BofA lowered PT to $15 (from $16) but kept Buy; reiterated the main driver is Phase 3 LUCIDITY data (Q3 2026) and noted cash runway to 2028.
Trend: targets are generally above the current ~$14.5, but one notable trim (BofA) suggests more caution while waiting for the 2026 data.
Wall Street “pros” view: upside if avexitide succeeds and as the PBH opportunity de-risks.
Wall Street “cons” view: long catalyst wait, headline/legal noise, and fundamental financials still loss-making with no revenue—making the stock prone to sentiment-driven swings rather than steady near-term compounding.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available, and no politician activity was provided in the dataset.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AMLX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMLX is 20.14 USD with a low forecast of 15 USD and a high forecast of 25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

8 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 12.990

Low

Averages

20.14

High

Current: 12.990

Low

Averages

20.14

High

BofA

Buy

maintain

$16 -> $15

AI Analysis

2025-12-19

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$16 -> $15

AI Analysis

2025-12-19

maintain

Buy

Reason

BofA lowered the firm's price target on Amylyx to $15 from $16 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported Q3 earnings and confirmed a cash runway to 2028 due to recent financing. The "driver of the story" remains pivotal Phase 3 LUCIDITY trial results for avexitide in post-bariatric hypoglycemia expected in Q3 of 2026, the analyst tells investors.

Mizuho

Graig Suvannavejh

Outperform

maintain

$16 -> $18

2025-11-10

Reason

Mizuho

Graig Suvannavejh

Price Target

$16 -> $18

2025-11-10

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Mizuho analyst Graig Suvannavejh raised the firm's price target on Amylyx to $18 from $16 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the Q3 report.

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AMLX Should I Buy

AMLX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc (AMLX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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