Should I Buy AMG? AMG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Affiliated Managers Group Inc (AMG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

305.500

1 Day change

1.31%

52 Week Range

334.000

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Buy now for a tactical entry: price (~308.4) is sitting just above S1 support (305.23) after a -2.5% regular-session drop, creating a near-support dip-buy setup.
Near-term catalyst is imminent: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-05 (pre-market) can act as the next major price driver; positioning ahead of that is the clearest “now” trade.
Despite weak short-term momentum (bearish MACD), the setup is supported by strong last reported quarter profit/EPS growth and a notably bullish analyst re-rating (large PT raise).

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram -2.53 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum still building.
RSI: RSI(6) 38.69 → weak/oversold-leaning but not capitulation; consistent with a dip near support rather than a confirmed reversal.
Moving averages: “Converging” MAs → consolidation/transition; needs a reclaim of the pivot to confirm trend improvement.
Key levels:
- Support: 305.23 (S1) then 297.70 (S2)
- Pivot/inflection: 317.42 (reclaiming this improves the technical picture)
- Resistance: 329.61 (R1) then 337.14 (R2)
Pattern-based odds (provided): Similar-candlestick study suggests ~70% chance of modest upside (+2.46% next day, +2.27% next week), aligning with a short-term rebound thesis from support.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (Open Interest): Put/Call OI ratio 0.45 (calls > puts) → medium-term positioning skew is bullish.
Flow (Volume today): Put/Call volume ratio 2.0 with very small absolute volume (todays volume 6) → short-term hedging/defensive tone, but not heavy conviction by size.
Volatility: 30D IV 28.47 vs Historical Vol 34.67 → options imply less movement than realized historically; IV percentile 57.2 (mid-pack), IV rank 7.9 (low vs recent range).
Activity vs baseline: Volume vs 30D avg 8.22x and OI vs avg 130.71 (as given) → relative pickup in attention, even if absolute contracts are small.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst (imminent): QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-05 pre-market.
- Analyst bullish re-rate: TD Cowen raised PT to $485 from $395 and reiterated Buy, citing an “aha moment” that could support multiple expansion.
- Profitability inflection (latest quarter): Q3 2025 showed outsized net income and EPS growth vs modest revenue growth.
- Support-based entry: Price is close to S1 (305.23), which often attracts dip buyers.
- Options OI skew: Put/Call OI 0.45 supports a constructive positioning backdrop.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Bearish momentum: MACD histogram below zero and worsening indicates the down-move is not technically “done” yet.
- Below pivot: Trading below 317.42 keeps the stock in a weaker technical regime until reclaimed.
- Hedge fund trend: “Hedge Funds are Selling” with selling amount up 133.08% QoQ (negative sentiment/positioning signal).
- Options volume skew bearish: Put/Call volume 2.0 suggests near-term demand for protection.
- No supportive news flow: No recent news catalysts beyond the upcoming earnings event.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3
- Revenue: $555.6M, +3.04% YoY (steady but not high growth)
- Net Income: $212.4M, +71.84% YoY (strong operating leverage/margin expansion)
- EPS: 6.46, +83.00% YoY (very strong earnings power improvement)
Takeaway: fundamentals in the last quarter show profit growth materially outpacing revenue, supporting the case for a higher valuation if sustained.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent change (2025-12-15): TD Cowen (Bill Katz) raised price target to $485 from $395 and maintained Buy.
Wall Street pro view (pros): Thesis centers on an “aha moment” and re-rating potential vs alternative managers, implying upside multiple expansion.
Wall Street con view (cons): The market is not uniformly aligned—hedge funds have been net sellers, which can cap near-term upside until earnings/flows reverse.
Net: Street commentary is meaningfully positive on upside potential, but positioning signals show some institutional skepticism right now.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AMG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMG is 388.5 USD with a low forecast of 295 USD and a high forecast of 485 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 301.550

Low

295

Averages

388.5

High

485

Current: 301.550

Low

295

Averages

388.5

High

485

TD Cowen

Bill Katz

Buy

maintain

$395 -> $485

AI Analysis

2025-12-15

Reason

TD Cowen

Bill Katz

Price Target

$395 -> $485

AI Analysis

2025-12-15

maintain

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen analyst Bill Katz raised the firm's price target on Affiliated Managers to $485 from $395 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm met with management and said they see an "aha" moment surfacing that should increasingly comp AMG against Alt managers, bolstering the multiple and add another potent leg up in the stock.

TD Cowen

Bill Katz

Buy

maintain

$345 -> $395

2025-11-04

Reason

TD Cowen

Bill Katz

Price Target

$345 -> $395

2025-11-04

maintain

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen analyst Bill Katz raised the firm's price target on Affiliated Managers to $395 from $345 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

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AMG Should I Buy

AMG Should I Buy

Should You Buy Affiliated Managers Group Inc (AMG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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