Should I Buy AMBP? AMBP 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

4.790

1 Day change

-0.42%

52 Week Range

5.030

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price (4.64) is extended/overbought short-term (RSI_6=79) and sitting near resistance (R1=4.627, R2=4.755), skewing risk/reward to the downside.
Upside looks limited near-term (next key level ~4.76) versus more meaningful pullback room to the pivot/support zone (4.42) and S1 (4.21).
Options positioning is very call-heavy (bullish sentiment), but that optimism is already reflected after a strong recent move; with low implied vol, the market is not pricing a big upside burst.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 (uptrend intact).
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.00932 and expanding (still positive momentum).
Overbought/extension: RSI_6 = 79.14 (overbought despite the label; suggests near-term pullback risk).
Levels: Pivot 4.418 (first support), S1 4.21; resistance R1 4.627 already tagged, next R2 4.755.
Pattern-based projection: Similar-pattern stats imply ~-0.17% next day, +0.43% next week, and ~-3.49% next month (tilts against chasing here).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Calls dominate (Call OI 20,693 vs Put OI 1,413) → strongly bullish skew.
Flow: Today’s volume 27 contracts (26 calls / 1 put) with very low put participation.
Volatility: IV (30d) 17.97 vs historical vol 42.8; IV percentile 1.6 / IV rank 1.66 → options priced unusually “calm,” which often coincides with complacency after a run.
Takeaway: Sentiment is bullish, but the stock is technically stretched near resistance—better for managing an existing position than initiating a chase-buy.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Technical uptrend remains intact (bullish moving-average stack + positive MACD).
- Q3 2025 growth: Revenue +8.76% YoY; EPS +100% YoY; Net income +75% YoY.
- Options market skew is heavily call-biased (supports bullish sentiment).
- Next potential catalyst: Earnings on 2026-02-25 (pre-market) could reset expectations if results beat.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Short-term overheating: RSI_6 ~79 suggests limited immediate upside and higher pullback risk.
- Profitability pressure: Gross margin down to 11.27% (down 5.13% YoY) despite revenue growth.
- Analyst bear case still present: BofA Underperform with $3.60 target citing leverage/capital structure and potential North America share loss.
- No supportive news flow in the last week; upside needs to come from execution rather than headlines.
- No notable supportive signals from hedge funds/insiders (both neutral).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $1.428B, +8.76% YoY (top-line growth positive).
Net Income: $21M, +75% YoY (strong improvement off a low base).
EPS: $0.04, +100% YoY (earnings momentum improving).
Margin: Gross margin 11.27%, -5.13% YoY (key negative—growth is coming with weaker margin quality).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating/target trend is mixed-to-neutral:
- Morgan Stanley (2026-01-08): Equal Weight; PT raised to $4.30 (still below current 4.64).
- Truist (2026-01-06): Hold; PT raised to $5 (modest upside vs current).
- BofA (2026-01-05): Underperform; PT cut to $3.60 (meaningful downside risk cited).
Wall Street pros: Can-demand growth tailwind and improving earnings trend.
Wall Street cons: Leverage/capital structure concerns and potential share loss; overall stance not a clear “buy the breakout,” more of a “range/hold” setup.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AMBP stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMBP is 4.45 USD with a low forecast of 3.6 USD and a high forecast of 5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

6 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 4.810

Low

3.6

Averages

4.45

High

Current: 4.810

Low

3.6

Averages

4.45

High

Morgan Stanley

Stefan Diaz

Equal Weight

maintain

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Stefan Diaz

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley analyst Stefan Diaz raised the firm's price target on Ardagh Metal Packaging to $4.30 from $4.10 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm forecasts global beverage can demand growth of 2.3% in 2026 and prefers to align its ratings where it sees the potential for higher earnings revisions and greater return on investment, the analyst tells investors. Given this backdrop, it reiterates an Overweight rating and $129 price target on Crown (CCK) and remains Equal Weight on Ardagh.

Truist

Hold

maintain

$4 -> $5

2026-01-06

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$4 -> $5

2026-01-06

maintain

Hold

Reason

Truist raised the firm's price target on Ardagh Metal Packaging to $5 from $4 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Early 2026 is expected to see modestly challenged packaging volumes due to limited promotions, though some CPGs are successfully driving volume while retaining price gains, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Beverage cans should continue growing in North America and Europe, and containerboard producers are likely to implement price increases successfully thanks to disciplined supply management, the firm says.

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AMBP Should I Buy

AMBP Should I Buy

Should You Buy Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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