Should I Buy AMBA? AMBA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Ambarella Inc (AMBA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

63.640

1 Day change

7.05%

52 Week Range

96.690

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: price is in a confirmed bearish trend (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) and momentum is still deteriorating (MACD histogram negative and expanding).
Oversold (RSI_6 ~~18) suggests a bounce is possible, but without Intellectia buy signals and with price sitting just below/near key support (~~60.74), the risk/reward is not compelling for an impatient entry.
Sentiment is mixed: hedge funds are accumulating, but options imply elevated uncertainty (IV percentile ~98) and fundamentals still show widening losses.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating a downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.357 and negatively expanding → downside momentum is still building.
Mean reversion: RSI_6 at 18.239 → deeply oversold; a short-term bounce is possible, but it’s a counter-trend setup.
Levels: Pivot 65.435 is overhead; near-term resistance levels: 70.13 then 73.031. Key supports: S1 60.741 (current area) and S2 57.84 (next downside level if S1 breaks).
Tape: Regular session -4.21% (weak), pre-market previously +1.07% but failed to hold, implying sellers remain in control.
Quant pattern read-through: similar-pattern projection suggests modest drift (+0.47% 1-week) and better 1-month odds (+5.24%), but near-term is not a clean “buy-now” setup.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put/Call OI ratio 0.41 (call-heavy) and volume put/call 0.78 (still more calls than puts) → sentiment leans bullish/speculative.
Volatility: 30D IV 85.62 with IV percentile 98 and IV rank 89.44 → options are pricing unusually high volatility/uncertainty.
Activity: Today’s volume 1,113 (~~82.75% of 30-day average) → not an extreme “capitulation” volume signal; open interest steady (~~99.92% vs avg).
Takeaway: Options skew looks optimistic, but the very high IV suggests the market is paying up for protection/upside and expects big moves—this does not confirm a low-risk buy point.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Edge AI demand narrative remains strong per multiple analysts (design wins, diversifying customer base; robotics/autonomy long runway).
- Hedge funds: Buying amount increased ~169.73% over the last quarter (supportive flow backdrop).
- Prior earnings tone was constructive (fiscal 2026/Q3 described as a beat/raise by several firms), which can support rebounds if the tape stabilizes.
- Next known catalyst: Earnings on 2026-03-02 after hours (QJAN 2026), which can reset expectations if execution remains strong.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Downtrend intact with weakening momentum (bearish MAs + MACD deterioration) — increases odds that oversold becomes “oversold for longer.”
- Near support: trading around S1 (~~60.74); a clean break can quickly expose S2 (~~57.84).
- Profitability pressure: gross margin down YoY and losses widened (see financials) — limits multiple expansion.
- Analyst caution exists: BofA maintained Neutral and recently lowered PT (85 from 92), citing gross margin pressure/operating leverage limits.
- No positive news flow in the past week to counter the bearish technical setup.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q3.
Revenue: 108.452M, up +31.21% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income -15.107M (down -37.24% YoY) and EPS -0.35 (down -39.66% YoY) → losses widened despite revenue growth.
Gross margin: 59.55%, down -1.65% YoY → margin compression remains a key concern.
Bottom line: growth is real, but the business is not yet translating it into improving earnings/margins, which can cap near-term upside in a weak tape.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating/target trend: predominantly positive adjustments after fiscal Q3 (multiple raises), followed by a more cautious update later.
Bulls (Buy): Rosenblatt reiterated Buy and raised PT to 115 (from 100) on “another strong quarter” and edge AI/robotics potential; Stifel kept Buy and raised PT to 100 (from 90).
Neutrals/Holds: Deutsche Bank kept Hold and raised PT to 80 (from 65); Roth kept Neutral with 85 PT citing edge AI momentum but balanced by broader considerations.
Cautious/neutral: BofA kept Neutral; after earlier raise to 92, later lowered PT to 85 (from 92), highlighting margin pressure and operating leverage limits.
Wall Street pro/con view: Pros = expanding edge AI adoption, broader design wins, long runway in robotics/autonomy. Cons = gross margin pressure, limited leverage, and the stock’s current technical weakness.

11 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AMBA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMBA is 96.7 USD with a low forecast of 80 USD and a high forecast of 115 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

7 Buy

4 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 59.450

Low

Averages

96.7

High

115

Current: 59.450

Low

Averages

96.7

High

115

BofA

Neutral

downgrade

$92 -> $85

AI Analysis

2025-12-16

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$92 -> $85

AI Analysis

2025-12-16

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

BofA lowered the firm's price target on Ambarella to $85 from $92 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for U.S. Semiconductor stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. BofA views 2026 as a midpoint for an 8 to 10 year journey upgrading traditional IT infrastructure for faster, AI workloads. While stocks may remain choppy amid greater scrutiny of AI returns and hyperscaler cash flows, this should be offset by faster large language model builders and AI factories, the firm adds.

Rosenblatt

Kevin Cassidy

Buy

maintain

$100 -> $115

2025-11-26

Reason

Rosenblatt

Kevin Cassidy

Price Target

$100 -> $115

2025-11-26

maintain

Buy

Reason

Rosenblatt analyst Kevin Cassidy raised the firm's price target on Ambarella to $115 from $100 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following what the firm calls "another strong quarter." Demand for its edge AI solutions continues to grow and a key driver of this momentum is the expanding and diversifying customer base, says the analyst, who also sees significant potential for Ambarella in the evolution of autonomous robotics.

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AMBA Should I Buy

AMBA Should I Buy

Should You Buy Ambarella Inc (AMBA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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