Buy now (momentum pullback within a larger uptrend): Price ($318.62) is sitting just above key support (S1 ~$314.62) after a sharp red day (-2.96%), which often creates a decent immediate entry for an impatient buyer.
Near-term catalyst setup: Earnings are 2026-02-12 after hours; the stock has a clear “beat/raise” narrative building from multiple analyst upgrades/target hikes.
Positioning/sentiment is supportive: Congress activity shows 4 buys / 0 sells in the last 90 days (large dollar amounts), and options volume skew is more call-leaning.
Main risk right now is short-term weakness: MACD is negative and expanding, so the trade relies on support holding and a bounce back toward the pivot/resistance zone.
Trend (mixed but still constructive): Moving averages remain bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), implying the bigger-picture trend is still up.
Momentum (short-term bearish): MACD histogram -1.498 and negatively expanding → selling pressure is currently increasing.
RSI: RSI_6 ~44.97 (neutral-to-slightly weak) → not oversold; room to bounce, but not a “washed-out” low.
Key levels: Support S1 ~$314.62 (then S2 ~$306.70). Resistance/pivot ~$327.43, then R1 ~$340.23.
Price context: Current price is below the pivot, so the immediate task for bulls is reclaiming ~$327 to re-accelerate upward.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Open interest put/call = 1.08: Slightly more puts outstanding than calls → mild hedging/defensive positioning.
Volume put/call = 0.63: More calls traded than puts → near-term trading tone is more bullish than OI suggests.
Implied vol: 30D IV ~46.0 vs historical vol ~40.2; IV percentile ~78.8 → options are relatively expensive (market pricing elevated movement into catalysts like earnings).
Activity: Today’s volume is ~77% of 30D average → not an extreme options “panic” day; positioning looks more like steady accumulation/hedging than capitulation.
Technical Summary
Sell
0
Buy
13
Positive Catalysts
Major Wall Street re-rating wave: Multiple upgrades and big price target hikes (e.g., UBS to $405, Deutsche Bank to $390, Needham to $390, Mizuho to $370) reinforce a strong 2026–2027 semicap cycle view.
Cycle tailwinds: Commentary across research notes points to a more constructive wafer-fab equipment environment and improving demand in deposition/etch intensity.
Event-driven upside:Earnings on 2026-02-12 (after hours)—recent notes explicitly reference “beat and raise” potential and narrative improvement.
Congress trading:4 purchases / 0 sales in last 90 days with large amounts ($1.5M–$5.0M range) → supportive signal.
Pattern-based expectation: Similar-pattern model suggests ~+3.68% over the next month (even if near-term choppy).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
implies some investors are still hedging near-term downside.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4
Revenue:$6.8B, -3.48% YoY (top-line dipped, consistent with a cyclical trough/transition phase).
Profitability improved despite revenue softness:
Net income:$1.897B, +9.59% YoY
EPS:$2.37, +13.94% YoY
Gross margin:48.01%, +1.42% YoY
Read-through: Strong operating leverage/margins improving ahead of expected WFE re-acceleration is a bullish quality signal going into 2026 demand recovery.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend: Clear, recent upgrade/target-hike cycle (late Jan through early Feb) with multiple firms moving to Buy/Outperform/Strong Buy and sharply lifting targets.
Notable changes:
UBS: Buy, PT $405 (raised from $285)
Deutsche Bank: upgraded to Buy, PT $390
Needham:Strong Buy, PT $390
Mizuho: upgraded to Outperform, PT $370
Morgan Stanley: Overweight, PT $364
Wall Street pros (bull case): accelerating WFE spend into 2026–2027, deposition/etch intensity, normalized China risk, narrative turning constructive.
Wall Street cons (bear watch): valuation/multiple expansion may lag some peers due to node/customer mix; near-term concerns may take time to fade even with improving fundamentals.
Wall Street analysts forecast AMAT stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMAT is 288.05 USD with a low forecast of 190 USD and a high forecast of 425 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
22 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AMAT stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMAT is 288.05 USD with a low forecast of 190 USD and a high forecast of 425 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 303.990
Low
190
Averages
288.05
High
425
Current: 303.990
Low
190
Averages
288.05
High
425
Citi
Atif Malik
Buy
maintain
$250 -> $400
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
Reason
Citi
Atif Malik
Price Target
$250 -> $400
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
Citi analyst Atif Malik raised the firm's price target on Applied Materials to $400 from $250 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of the January quarter report on February 12. Citi expects above-consensus results amid positive spending revisions from all the major foundry and memory semi companies.
UBS
Timothy Arcuri
NULL -> Buy
upgrade
$285 -> $405
2026-02-02
Reason
UBS
Timothy Arcuri
Price Target
$285 -> $405
2026-02-02
upgrade
NULL -> Buy
Reason
UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri raised the firm's price target on Applied Materials to $405 from $285 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
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