Should I Buy ALV? ALV 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Autoliv Inc (ALV) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

125.790

1 Day change

1.18%

52 Week Range

130.140

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: momentum is still bearish (negative, expanding MACD) and price is below the key pivot (~124.4).
Options positioning looks bullish/constructive (very low put-call open interest), but that’s being outweighed near-term by weakening technicals + heavy hedge fund/insider selling.
If you already own it: holding is reasonable because earnings were solid and Street targets still imply upside; but as a fresh buy today, the setup isn’t strong enough without a technical turn.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: bearish bias — MACD histogram -0.834 and “negatively expanding” signals downside momentum strengthening.
RSI(6) 38.9: drifting toward oversold but not yet a clear reversal signal.
Moving averages: converging (transition phase), but without a bullish cross this is not a high-conviction long entry.
Levels: Current 122.33 sits below Pivot 124.416 (near-term bearish). Key support S1 120.482 then S2 118.051. Resistance at 124.416, then 128.351.
Pattern-based forecast provided: near-term looks flat/low edge, with a more positive 1-month skew (data suggests better odds later than immediately).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: bullish/low-hedging skew (Put/Call OI 0.13 is very call-heavy).
Volume: Put/Call volume 0.65 (calls still lead; puts present but not dominant).
Volatility: IV(30d) 28.05 vs HV 24.06 = modest implied premium; IV percentile ~21 / IV rank ~4.6 suggests IV is relatively low vs its own history (not a panic tape).
Activity vs average: today’s option volume ~81% of 30-day average (not a major options “event” day).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Q4 results beat on adjusted EPS ($3.19) with sales $2.817B; revenue growth was solid and commentary highlighted strength with Chinese OEMs.
- Multiple firms remain constructive (Buy/Overweight/Outperform maintained), with price targets commonly in the $140–$152 range (implied upside from $122).
- Potential upside catalyst mentioned by RBC: improved global production scenario if USMCA uncertainty is resolved (timing cited around July in analyst commentary).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Guidance/outlook tone: multiple notes flagged a softer/cautious 2026 outlook despite margin-offset narrative.
- Positioning/flows: Hedge funds selling sharply (selling amount up 2642.64% QoQ) and insiders selling (up 157.66% MoM)—a notable near-term overhang.
- Technicals: downside momentum is still strengthening (MACD), increasing the odds of a support test near 120.5.
- News flow includes a notable shareholder trim (Tweedy, Browne sold shares), reinforcing the “selling pressure” narrative.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $2.817B, +7.68% YoY (top-line growth remains healthy).
Profitability: Net income $226M, -7.0% YoY; EPS 2.99, -2.92% YoY — growth is coming with earnings pressure.
Margins: Gross margin 20.31%, down 3.56% YoY — confirms margin compression vs last year despite record gross profit commentary.
Takeaway: growth is present, but quality of growth (margins/earnings) weakened in the latest quarter, aligning with the cautious forward tone.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend (post-Q4): several firms cut price targets while largely keeping their ratings (Neutral/Overweight/Outperform/Buy), signaling confidence in the longer thesis but reduced near-term expectations.
2026-02-02: Baird Neutral, PT cut to $132 (mixed Q4, flat 2026 organic outlook).
2026-02-02: TD Cowen Buy, PT raised to $152 (thesis intact; expects margin expansion even on softer LVP).
2026-02-02: RBC Outperform, PT cut to $141 (below-consensus outlook but sees production upside optionality).
2026-02-02: Barclays Overweight, PT cut to $140 (soft revenue guide but margin offsets).
Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros = margin expansion potential, resilient demand mix, upside if production/trade outcomes improve. Cons = cautious 2026 setup, softer revenue guide, and near-term pressure reflected in target cuts.

10 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ALV stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALV is 141.2 USD with a low forecast of 125 USD and a high forecast of 152 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

8 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 124.320

Low

125

Averages

141.2

High

152

Current: 124.320

Low

125

Averages

141.2

High

152

Berenberg

Buy

downgrade

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

New

Reason

Berenberg

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

New

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Berenberg lowered the firm's price target on Autoliv to SEK 1,194 from SEK 1,263 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

Baird

Neutral

downgrade

$137 -> $132

2026-02-02

Reason

Baird

Price Target

$137 -> $132

2026-02-02

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

Baird lowered the firm's price target on Autoliv to $132 from $137 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following a mixed Q4 report and flat 2026 organic outlook.

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ALV Should I Buy

ALV Should I Buy

Should You Buy Autoliv Inc (ALV) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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