Should I Buy ALSN? ALSN 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

115.630

1 Day change

1.65%

52 Week Range

117.070

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: the stock is extended near resistance (~112.7–113.9) while momentum (MACD histogram) is still below zero, reducing immediate upside for an impatient entry.
Options flow is mixed-to-bearish short-term (put volume heavy), suggesting traders are leaning defensive into the next catalyst.
Fundamentals in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3) show notable YoY declines in revenue, earnings, and EPS—hard to justify chasing near highs without a fresh positive catalyst.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bullish longer-term structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, implying the broader trend remains up.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.343 (below 0) and only “negatively contracting” → downside momentum is easing, but trend momentum has not re-confirmed bullish.
RSI: RSI(6) ~63.7 (neutral-to-slightly warm) → not oversold; limited “snap-back” edge for a fresh buy.
Levels: Pivot 110.816 (price ~111.25 is slightly above), Resistance R1 112.706 / R2 113.875, Supports S1 108.925 / S2 107.757.
Near-term expectation (pattern-based): ~60% probability of modest gains (≈+1.82% next day; +1.33% next week), but the setup is not a clean momentum breakout yet.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Open Interest Put/Call = 0.84 → slightly more call-biased OI (mildly bullish positioning).
Flow: Option Volume Put/Call = 2.0 (puts > calls) → short-term trading sentiment skewed defensive/bearish.
Volatility: IV(30d) 32.16 vs HV 22.58 → options are pricing elevated forward uncertainty.
Activity: Today’s volume 24 is low, but volume vs 30-day average shows 37.5% (subpar), limiting confidence in any single-day options read.
Net takeaway: Medium-term positioning is not bearish, but near-term flow is, aligning with a “not a chase here” bias.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Upcoming catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-10 (After Hours) could reset the narrative if margins/guide surprise.
- Street catalysts: Raymond James upgrade to Strong Buy with $110 target tied to strategic M&A (Dana off-highway acquisition narrative) and a more balanced revenue mix.
- Technical backdrop: bullish moving-average stack supports the idea the bigger trend is still constructive if momentum turns back up.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Price vs targets: current price (~111) is above multiple neutral targets (e.g., Citi $105, Wells Fargo $98), implying less “easy” upside from here.
- Earnings risk: with earnings close, short-term traders often buy puts; current put-heavy volume hints at hedging/speculation to the downside.
- Momentum not confirmed: MACD still below zero and price is close to resistance, increasing odds of chop/pullback rather than an immediate clean continuation.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $693M, -15.9% YoY (clear top-line contraction).
Net income: $137M, -31.5% YoY (profit fell faster than revenue).
EPS: 1.63, -28.2% YoY (meaningful earnings deceleration).
Gross margin: 47.47%, -1.23% YoY (slight margin compression).
Growth read-through: recent reported trends are negative, so the stock needs a forward re-acceleration or guidance uplift to justify buying aggressively at current levels.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: price targets were raised by Citi (to $100, then $105) and Wells (to $98), but both maintained Neutral/Equal Weight → improving outlook, not conviction.
Notable positive: Raymond James upgraded to Strong Buy (PT $110) on the strategic acquisition angle.
Wall Street “pros” view: better industry setup/cash conversion and strategic mix shift could support the story.
Wall Street “cons” view: medium-duty truck demand backdrop remains muted (Wells), and several targets still sit below the current trading price, limiting upside appeal right now.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ALSN stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALSN is 94.4 USD with a low forecast of 80 USD and a high forecast of 115 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

3 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 113.750

Low

Averages

94.4

High

115

Current: 113.750

Low

Averages

94.4

High

115

Wells Fargo

Jerry Revich

Equal Weight

maintain

$85 -> $98

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

Reason

Wells Fargo

Jerry Revich

Price Target

$85 -> $98

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Wells Fargo analyst Jerry Revich raised the firm's price target on Allison Transmission to $98 from $85 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm reiterates its positive outlook for the Machinery, Industrials & Environmental Services space heading into earnings. Wells argues the Machinery supply-driven recovery is broadening to new equipment, non-residential lead indicators are accelerating, and cash conversion is improving.

Citi

Neutral

maintain

$100 -> $105

2025-12-19

Reason

Citi

Price Target

$100 -> $105

2025-12-19

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Citi raised the firm's price target on Allison Transmission to $105 from $100 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

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ALSN Should I Buy

ALSN Should I Buy

Should You Buy Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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