Not a good buy right now: momentum is bullish but stretched (RSI elevated) and price is already above the first resistance zone, which reduces immediate upside for an impatient entry.
Options positioning (put-heavy open interest) and extremely high implied volatility suggest caution/hedging rather than confident bullish speculation.
Mixed fundamentals around Q4: strong core metrics and non-GAAP beat, but GAAP loss and the provided YoY revenue drop signal headline risk.
Intellectia signals are absent today (no AI Stock Picker / no SwingMax), so there’s no proprietary “must-buy now” trigger supporting an immediate entry.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, consistent with an established uptrend.
MACD: Histogram +0.101 and expanding, confirming positive momentum.
RSI (6): ~77.3, indicating the stock is short-term overbought/stretched (more vulnerable to pullbacks).
Levels: Pivot 24.446; current ~25.56 is above R1 (25.375) and below R2 (25.949) — price is in an upper resistance band where breakouts can stall.
Pattern-based forward bias: modest near-term edge (next week +1.46%), but flat-to-negative over the next month (-0.43%), aligning with “chasing here is less attractive.”
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: No signal on given stock today. (AI Stock Picker: no signal; SwingMax: no recent signal.)
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment via OI: Put/Call OI ratio 1.48 (puts > calls) implies more hedging/defensive positioning than bullish speculation.
Activity: Options volume is effectively zero today (no meaningful volume signal).
Volatility: 30D IV ~92.27 with IV percentile ~90.4 (very elevated vs its own history), typically reflecting event-afterglow/pricing in uncertainty; buying common stock here means paying up into uncertainty rather than getting a “cheap” entry.
Open interest: Total OI ~114 and “today vs OI avg 30D” ~108.6 suggests positioning exists, but without volume it’s not showing active bullish follow-through today.
Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.85 beat expectations by $0.28, supported by improved net interest income.
Analyst support from Raymond James: Strong Buy reiterated with raised target to $29; commentary suggests 2026 outlook could be conservative.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
increases the odds of a near-term pullback.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Mixed quarter optics: news highlights strong core ROA and a sizable non-GAAP EPS beat, but GAAP results were negatively impacted by a large one-time repositioning loss.
Provided snapshot flags sharp YoY revenue decline (-89.38% YoY) and negative net income/EPS (Net Income -$33.05M; EPS -1.29), which reinforces that reported results were distorted and can remain a sentiment overhang until clarity improves.
Growth takeaway: underlying operating strength appears better than GAAP headlines, but the reported financial trend set is not clean enough to justify an impatient “buy now” decision at a technically stretched level.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
2026-01-30 Raymond James: Strong Buy; price target raised to $29 from $27 on better 2026 outlook/raised EPS estimates.
2026-01-30 Keefe Bruyette: Market Perform; target raised to $25 from $24 (notably below current price).
2026-01-07 Hovde: Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform.
Street view summary: Pros—balance sheet optimization and improved earnings power narrative; Cons—recent downgrade and at least one major target below spot price, suggesting limited immediate upside at today’s level.
Ownership/trading flows: hedge funds neutral; insiders neutral; no recent Congress trading data available.
Wall Street analysts forecast ALRS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALRS is 25 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 27 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ALRS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALRS is 25 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 27 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 25.440
Low
24
Averages
25
High
27
Current: 25.440
Low
24
Averages
25
High
27
Raymond James
David Long
Strong Buy
maintain
$27 -> $29
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
Reason
Raymond James
David Long
Price Target
$27 -> $29
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
maintain
Strong Buy
Reason
Raymond James analyst David Long raised the firm's price target on Alerus Financial to $29 from $27 and keeps a Strong Buy rating on the shares following the release of what the firm says were "noisy" Q4 results. The 2026 revenue outlook was above expectations, leading the firm to increase its EPS estimates, notes the analyst, who believes the guidance may prove conservative.
Keefe Bruyette
Damon DelMonte
Market Perform
maintain
$24 -> $25
2026-01-30
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Damon DelMonte
Price Target
$24 -> $25
2026-01-30
maintain
Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette analyst Damon DelMonte raised the firm's price target on Alerus Financial to $25 from $24 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for ALRS
