Not a good buy right now: the stock is in a confirmed bearish trend (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) with negative, widening MACD momentum.
Oversold (RSI_6 ~13.9) raises the chance of a short-term bounce, but with no proprietary buy signals and bearish positioning in options, the path of least resistance is still down.
Sentiment is mixed-to-negative: hedge funds are buying aggressively, but insiders are selling heavily, which is a stronger near-term red flag.
With the user being impatient and unwilling to wait for better setups, the risk/reward favors avoiding/exit rather than buying into a falling trend.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bearish structure (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) plus MACD histogram at -0.352 and negatively expanding = downside momentum is strengthening.
Oversold: RSI_6 at 13.904 signals extreme oversold conditions; bounces are possible but are typically lower-probability entries when trend/momentum are still bearish.
Levels: Price 46.49 is below pivot 48.365 and sitting near S1 46.261; next support S2 44.96. Upside resistance levels: 50.47 (R1) then 51.77 (R2).
Pattern-based probabilities: Similar-candlestick study implies continued weakness (next week about -6.45%, next month about -6.74%).
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: Very high open-interest put/call ratio (4.36) suggests defensive/bearish positioning (more puts outstanding than calls).
Activity: Options volume is effectively zero today, so the sentiment signal comes from open interest positioning rather than fresh flow.
Volatility: IV_30d ~32.88 vs historical vol ~33.72 (roughly in line/slightly lower); IV percentile 37.2 and IV rank 5.04 indicate IV is relatively low versus its own recent range (less “fear premium” despite the drop).
Technical Summary
Sell
7
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
Technical bounce potential: Extremely oversold RSI can trigger a reflex rally, especially if 44.96–46.26 support holds.
Institutional behavior: Hedge funds are buying (reported buying amount +571.25% last quarter), which can provide a medium-term support narrative.
Margins: Q3 2025 gross margin improved to 62.81% (+1.96% YoY), indicating operating quality is not deteriorating.
Event catalyst: Next earnings on 2026-02-25 (after hours) can reset the narrative if SaaS/hardware visibility improves.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
aligns with bearish/defensive expectations.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 256.4M, up +6.61% YoY (steady growth).
Profitability: Net income 35.338M, down -3.66% YoY; EPS 0.65, down -2.99% YoY (growth not translating into higher earnings this quarter).
Efficiency: Gross margin 62.81%, up +1.96% YoY (a notable positive trend).
Overall read: Improving gross margin but soft earnings growth—good quality, but not strong enough to offset the current bearish tape.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent changes (Nov 2025):
Goldman Sachs: Neutral, price target cut to 56 from 63; acknowledged strong Q3 beat/guidance raise but wants clearer sustained SaaS growth and better hardware visibility.
Barclays: Equal Weight, price target cut to 56 from 60 post-Q3.
Trend: Targets were reduced despite a solid quarter—signals caution on forward visibility rather than current execution.
Wall Street pros: Improving scale/margins/cash generation and solid Q3 execution.
Wall Street cons: Need proof of sustained SaaS growth and clearer hardware demand outlook; macro uncertainty keeps ratings at neutral/equal-weight.
Wall Street analysts forecast ALRM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALRM is 66.5 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 85 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ALRM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALRM is 66.5 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 85 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 46.430
Low
55
Averages
66.5
High
85
Current: 46.430
Low
55
Averages
66.5
High
85
Goldman Sachs
Neutral
maintain
$63 -> $56
AI Analysis
2025-11-10
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$63 -> $56
AI Analysis
2025-11-10
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Alarm.com to $56 from $63 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Alarm.com delivered a strong Q3, exceeding expectations on both revenue and profitability, with broad-based strength across SaaS and hardware and a full-year guidance raise, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While the company's scale, margin outlook, and cash generation are improving, clearer evidence of sustained SaaS growth and better visibility into hardware demand amid macro uncertainty are needed before turning more constructive on the stock, Goldman says.
Barclays
Equal Weight
downgrade
$60 -> $56
2025-11-07
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$60 -> $56
2025-11-07
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Alarm.com to $56 from $60 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares following the Q3 report.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for ALRM
