Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the technical setup is still bearish and probability signals point to near-term downside.
Wait to buy until price either reclaims the 354–371 resistance zone with strength or dips toward support (338) with stabilization.
Long-term story remains attractive (TTR/Amvuttra + pipeline), but the current entry is not favorable for quick upside follow-through ahead of earnings.
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Bearish moving-average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) indicates the larger trend is still down despite the recent +3.74% day.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.35) but contracting, suggesting downside momentum is weakening (early stabilization), not yet a confirmed reversal.
RSI: RSI(6) ~46.96 = neutral; no oversold bounce signal.
Key levels: Pivot ~354.45 (price ~353.62 is just below it). Resistance: ~371.21 then ~381.56. Support: ~337.69 then ~327.34.
Near-term pattern bias: Similar-candlestick analog shows ~60% odds of drift lower (-0.96% next day, -3.57% next week, -7.93% next month), which argues against chasing here.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning vs flow: Open interest put/call (0.68) is constructive (more call positioning overall), but today’s volume put/call (2.02) is bearish/defensive, implying traders were buying puts or put spreads into the move.
Volatility: 30D IV ~44.5 vs historical vol ~35.8 (IV elevated). IV percentile ~73% suggests options are priced rich; market is bracing for event risk.
Activity: Today’s volume vs 30D avg ~32.6% (not a major spike), but open interest is relatively elevated (today vs OI avg ~110%), consistent with ongoing positioning ahead of catalysts (earnings on 2026-02-12).
Sentiment read: Mixed—longer-dated positioning doesn’t look panicked, but short-term flow is cautious and hedged.
Technical Summary
Sell
11
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
Event catalyst: Earnings on 2026-02-12 (pre-market) can re-rate the stock quickly if Amvuttra/TTR trajectory and guidance surprise to the upside.
Business momentum: News indicates expected Q4 2025 revenue ~$1.16B and adj. EPS ~$1.50, plus strong Amvuttra growth (ATTR-CM adoption).
Pipeline optionality: Upcoming pipeline updates (Phase 3 hATTR, Phase 2 Alzheimer’s) can add multiple “shots on goal.”
Street still broadly constructive: Multiple Buy/Overweight/Outperform ratings with targets well above current price imply meaningful upside if growth/guidance holds.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
points to near-term hedging or bearish speculation.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $1.249B, up +149.35% YoY (very strong top-line expansion).
Profitability: Net income $251.1M and EPS $1.83 are shown down sharply YoY (net income -325.05%, EPS -310.34%), indicating either tougher comps and/or higher costs/investment; despite revenue strength, earnings volatility remains.
Margins: Gross margin ~83.98% (+1.36% YoY), supporting a high-quality product gross profile even if operating spend is pressuring net results.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets have been cut across multiple firms (BofA 529→462, RBC 500→465, Bernstein 525→491, Truist 535→530, H.C. Wainwright 570→510, Wells 479→376), reflecting tempered near-term expectations and margin/investment concerns.
Ratings skew: Still mostly positive (Buy/Overweight/Outperform dominate), with at least one more cautious stance (Wells Fargo Equal Weight; Leerink Market Perform).
Wall Street pros: Amvuttra/TTR franchise scaling, continued category growth, and pipeline catalysts; several firms see meaningful upside from current levels.
Wall Street cons: Concerns about ATTR-CM growth deceleration signals from third-party data, payer pushback, and R&D spend compressing operating margins versus prior Street expectations.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data; hedge funds and insiders are reported as neutral with no notable recent trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast ALNY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALNY is 500.28 USD with a low forecast of 351 USD and a high forecast of 570 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
20 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ALNY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALNY is 500.28 USD with a low forecast of 351 USD and a high forecast of 570 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 331.240
Low
351
Averages
500.28
High
570
Current: 331.240
Low
351
Averages
500.28
High
570
BofA
Buy
downgrade
$529 -> $462
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$529 -> $462
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
downgrade
Buy
Reason
BofA lowered the firm's price target on Alnylam to $462 from $529 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of the firm's Q4 small-to-mid cap biotech earnings preview.
H.C. Wainwright
Buy
downgrade
$570 -> $510
2026-01-30
Reason
H.C. Wainwright
Price Target
$570 -> $510
2026-01-30
downgrade
Buy
Reason
H.C. Wainwright lowered the firm's price target on Alnylam to $510 from $570 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm reduced the company's estimates to reflect a "more disciplined" near-term growth and margin outlook. However, it still sees "compelling upside" for Alnylam shares from current levels as its TTR franchise scales and the "Alnylam 2030" strategy takes hold.
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