Buy now: Price (~16.08) is sitting just above key support (S1 15.373) with oversold RSI and bearish momentum fading, which is a favorable “buy-the-dip” setup for an impatient buyer.
Options positioning is supportive (put/call OI skew bullish at 0.4), suggesting market participants are not heavily hedging for downside.
Near-term model odds are mixed (slightly negative next day/week, positive next month), but the technical oversold + support proximity makes the current level a reasonable entry rather than waiting.
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram -0.576 (below zero) but negatively contracting → downside momentum is weakening (sell pressure easing, not yet a reversal confirmation).
RSI: RSI(6) 27.2 → effectively oversold, often consistent with a bounce zone (especially near support).
Moving averages: Converging MAs → trend is indecisive/transitioning, consistent with a basing attempt.
Key levels:
Support: 15.373 (S1) then 13.894 (S2)
Resistance: 17.768 (Pivot) then 20.162 (R1)
Current price (~16.08) is below pivot but holding above S1, which favors a rebound attempt if support holds.
Pattern-based forward view (similar candlestick analogs): ~40% chance of -0.74% next day, -2.73% next week, +5.65% next month → suggests choppiness short-term, but better odds on a 1-month horizon.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Open interest: Calls OI 5133 vs Puts OI 2078 → OI put/call 0.4 (bullish positioning / more call interest outstanding).
Volume sentiment: Call vol 51 vs Put vol 50 → volume put/call 0.98 (roughly neutral-to-slightly cautious on the day).
Activity vs norms:
Today’s option volume 101 vs 30D avg factor 60.84 (as provided) → indicates below-normal participation in volume terms.
Today’s open interest 7211, 108.37 vs 30D avg (as provided) → OI elevated, suggesting existing positioning is meaningful.
Volatility:
30D IV 103.73 vs HV 91.44 (options still pricing big moves).
IV is below 5D/10D IV averages (123/126) → IV has been compressing, consistent with “fear cooling” after prior elevated levels.
Revenue: $1.385M, +188.10% YoY (strong acceleration off a small base)
Net income: -$1.493M, improved +104.63% YoY (loss narrowing)
EPS: -0.09, improved +50.00% YoY
Gross margin: 49.39%, up +42.91% YoY → margin expansion is a clear positive trend
Overall: fundamentals show rapid growth + improving margins, but still in a loss-making phase, so price action may remain highly sensitive to quarterly updates.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating/price target updates were provided, so a verified trend in Wall Street upgrades/downgrades cannot be concluded from the dataset.
Wall Street-style pros (based on available fundamentals): accelerating revenue growth, improving EPS trend, strong gross margin expansion.
Wall Street-style cons: ongoing net losses, small-cap scale (market cap ~$277M), and likely high earnings-driven volatility.
Politicians / influential figures: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days; no other influential trading activity provided.
Wall Street analysts forecast ALMU stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALMU is 25.5 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 26 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ALMU stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALMU is 25.5 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 26 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 13.860
Low
25
Averages
25.5
High
26
Current: 13.860
Low
25
Averages
25.5
High
26
Benchmark
David Williams
initiated
$25
AI Analysis
2025-07-23
Reason
Benchmark
David Williams
Price Target
$25
AI Analysis
2025-07-23
initiated
Reason
Benchmark analyst David Williams initiated coverage of Aeluma with a Buy rating and $25 price target.
Benchmark
David Williams
Buy
initiated
$25
2025-07-23
Reason
Benchmark
David Williams
Price Target
$25
2025-07-23
initiated
Buy
Reason
As previously reported, Benchmark analyst David Williams initiated coverage of Aeluma with a Buy rating and $25 price target. The firm believes the company's proprietary large diameter silicon wafer process enables superior performance characteristics at a significantly lower manufacturing cost and views Aeluma as positioned to "fundamentally disrupt the high-performance sensing and communications compound semiconductor market." The firm believes this technology platform will capture significant share in existing applications and unlock high-performance devices for mass markets, making it "a key enabler of emerging technologies," the analyst added.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for ALMU
