Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is pressing into near-term resistance (R1 ~27.84) while momentum (MACD histogram) is negative and worsening.
Medium-term setup is constructive (bullish moving-average stack; strong analyst upgrades; heavy insider buying), but near-term odds lean toward a pullback before a better entry.
With earnings on 2026-02-12 (after hours) and options implying elevated event risk (very high IV), risk/reward for an immediate chase is unfavorable.
Momentum: Bearish near-term — MACD histogram -0.236 and negatively expanding (weakening momentum despite the uptrend).
RSI(6): 62.43 (neutral-to-slightly warm; not oversold, so less “dip-buy” support).
Levels: Pivot 25.99; Resistance R1 27.84 then R2 28.98; Support S1 24.14. Current ~27.10 is closer to resistance than support, skewing near-term R/R negatively.
Pattern-based projection: ~60% chance of -2.45% next day and -2.23% next week, despite +9.6% next month odds (supports “wait for dip” vs buy-now).
Sentiment: Put/call ratios are very low (call-heavy), reflecting bullish speculation/positioning.
Volatility: 30D IV ~358% vs historical vol ~63.6%; IV percentile ~87.7 (options are extremely expensive), consistent with big expected moves (notably into upcoming earnings).
Activity: Today’s volume vs 30D avg ~44x (unusual activity), but in a high-IV regime this can also mean crowded/late positioning.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
is driving broad Street optimism (reflected in price target resets).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Near-term technical momentum is weakening (negative, expanding MACD histogram) and price is approaching resistance (R1).
Event-risk pricing: extremely high IV suggests the market expects a sharp move; buying shares now is effectively “paying up” into uncertainty.
News flow: BML Capital Management fully liquidated1.21M shares ($4.83M), a notable institutional exit.
Hedge funds trend: overall Neutral over the last quarter (no strong accumulation signal).
No supportive politician/congress buying signals: no recent congress trading data available.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $2.066M, flat YoY (0.00%) (limited top-line momentum at this stage).
Net income: -$110.752M, improved 18.94% YoY (loss narrowing).
EPS: -1.06, down -38.01% YoY (per-share loss worsened; mixed vs the net income improvement line item).
Overall: still a high-burn, development-stage profile where valuation is driven more by pipeline milestones than current revenue.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend is decisively positive: multiple firms raised price targets sharply after Phase 3 data (e.g., $20→$40, $17→$39, $25→$50, $22→$33, $18→$32), and a new initiation at Buy $37.
Wall Street “pros” view: best-in-class potential for envudeucitinib in TYK2-mediated autoimmune disorders; improved probability of success; multi-indication upside.
Wall Street “cons” view: execution/clinical-commercialization path still ahead; outcome sensitivity around upcoming updates/earnings; high implied volatility indicates the market sees meaningful downside risk alongside upside.
Wall Street analysts forecast ALMS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALMS is 37.67 USD with a low forecast of 32 USD and a high forecast of 50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ALMS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALMS is 37.67 USD with a low forecast of 32 USD and a high forecast of 50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 26.340
Low
32
Averages
37.67
High
50
Current: 26.340
Low
32
Averages
37.67
High
50
Chardan
NULL -> Buy
initiated
$37
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
Reason
Chardan
Price Target
$37
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
initiated
NULL -> Buy
Reason
Chardan initiated coverage of Alumis with a Buy rating and $37 price target. The firm cites the potential of the company's late-stage clinical pipeline in TYK2-mediated autoimmune disorders for the Buy rating. Alumis' lead asset, envudeucitinib, is a TYK2 inhibitor that recently achieved all primary and secondary endpoints in two Phase III trials in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
H.C. Wainwright
H.C. Wainwright
Buy
maintain
$20 -> $40
2026-01-09
Reason
H.C. Wainwright
H.C. Wainwright
Price Target
$20 -> $40
2026-01-09
maintain
Buy
Reason
H.C. Wainwright raised the firm's price target on Alumis to $40 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm says the Phase 3 envudeucitinib readout "reset expectations" for the oral TYK2 landscape. It cites reduced approval risk and a higher revenue ceiling for the target doubling.
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