Not a good buy right now: momentum is strong but stretched (RSI ~80) and price is sitting near resistance after a sharp run.
With no Intellectia buy signals today and pattern-based forward odds skewing slightly negative over 1D/1W/1M, the risk/reward for an impatient entry is unfavorable at current levels.
If already holding, the trend remains bullish (moving averages aligned), so it’s more of a HOLD than an outright exit unless you need to reduce exposure after the run-up.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) indicates an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram positive (0.2) and expanding, confirming upside momentum.
Overbought: RSI_6 = 80.485 signals an overbought/extended condition—often followed by consolidation or pullback.
Key levels: Pivot 11.513 (important support/mean-reversion level). Immediate resistance at R1 13.064 (very close to current 12.94); next resistance R2 14.022.
Short-horizon statistical trend (similar candlestick patterns): ~50% chance of -0.38% next day, -1.48% next week, -3.41% next month (mild bearish bias).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
No signal on given stock today.
Positive Catalysts
Technically bullish trend with positive/expanding MACD.
2025/Q3 revenue growth (+27.98% YoY) and higher gross margin (+49.28% YoY) suggest improving operating trajectory at the gross level.
Analyst commentary (DA Davidson) previously highlighted supportive tungsten-market dynamics and raised its target (albeit modestly).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
and price near resistance (13.
make an immediate chase entry unattractive.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 8.695M, up +27.98% YoY (solid top-line growth).
Gross margin: 14.42, up +49.28% YoY (improving margin profile).
Net income: 33.191M, down -724.01% YoY (major YoY decline).
EPS: 0.13, down -533.33% YoY (material decline; profitability trend is the key weakness versus revenue growth).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
DA Davidson (2025-11-13): Reiterated Buy; raised price target to $12 from $11 after a Q3 beat and constructive tungsten commentary.
The other listed analyst note references a different company (Almirall), so it’s not directly applicable to ALM.
Wall Street-style pro view: constructive on the tungsten thematic and company progress (supports holding the uptrend).
Con view: target ($12) is below the current price (~$12.94), implying limited upside vs that reference point and increasing the case to avoid buying after the run.
Wall Street analysts forecast ALM stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALM is 12 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 12 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ALM stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALM is 12 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 12 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 12.700
Low
12
Averages
12
High
12
Current: 12.700
Low
12
Averages
12
High
12
Oppenheimer
Ian Zaffino
Outperform
maintain
$12 -> $16
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
Reason
Oppenheimer
Ian Zaffino
Price Target
$12 -> $16
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Oppenheimer analyst Ian Zaffino raised the firm's price target on Almonty to $16 from $12 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Management struck a bullish tone at the firm's Emerging Growth Conference, as tungsten prices continue to trend higher, Oppenheimer notes.
Alliance Global
Jake Sekelsky
Buy
maintain
$14
2026-02-03
New
Reason
Alliance Global
Jake Sekelsky
Price Target
$14
2026-02-03
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
Alliance Global analyst Jake Sekelsky raised the firm's price target on Almonty to $14 from $9.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm cites the company's strategic initiatives and continued strength in tungsten prices for the target boost. Almonty's equity financing and the start of active mining operations at Sangdong set the stage for significant growth in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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