Should I Buy ALLY? ALLY 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Ally Financial Inc (ALLY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

42.310

1 Day change

0.43%

52 Week Range

47.270

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now: price is sitting just above key pivot support (41.766) with near-term downside defined to S1 (~40.37) while Street price targets imply sizable upside (low-50s to high-50s).
Technicals are weak-to-stabilizing (bearish MACD but contracting; RSI ~38 nearing oversold), which favors a rebound-style entry for an impatient buyer rather than waiting for a perfect setup.
Options positioning shows elevated hedging (OI put/call 1.2) but day-of volume slightly favors calls (vol put/call 0.86), consistent with cautious-but-not-panicked sentiment.
Main risk to the buy call: latest quarter showed sharp YoY declines in net income/EPS, so the trade relies on the recovery/ROTCE re-rating story continuing to gain credibility.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram -0.158 (below zero) but negatively contracting → bearish momentum is fading, often seen near short-term bottoms.
RSI: RSI_6 = 38.74 → weak/near-oversold zone; selling pressure may be getting stretched.
Moving averages: converging → trend is transitioning (not a clean uptrend yet).
Levels to watch: Pivot 41.766 (current price ~42.15 slightly above); Resistance R1 43.165 then R2 44.029; Support S1 40.366 then S2 39.502.
Pattern-based odds: model suggests ~-1.27% next week but +4.49% next month → aligns with a choppy near-term followed by potential rebound.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest: Calls 59,074 vs Puts 70,823 → OI put/call 1.2 signals more protective/defensive positioning.
Volume: Total 3,133; put volume 1,447; call volume 1,686 → volume put/call 0.86 slightly favors calls (mild bullish tilt on the day).
Volatility: IV30 39.29 vs HV 37.42; IV percentile 72 → options are pricing elevated uncertainty/risk premium (often seen around catalysts/credit-cycle concerns).
Positioning takeaway: market is hedged (bearish skew in OI) but not aggressively bearish in fresh flow (volume).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Company-specific narrative in news: record auto loan applications; described as undervalued with strong performance metrics.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Latest quarter profitability trend is ugly on a YoY basis (net income and EPS down sharply), which can cap near-term multiple expansion.
- Credit risk remains the key wildcard (explicitly noted by major coverage); Ally’s auto/consumer exposure makes this especially important.
- Technicals are not in a confirmed uptrend yet (MACD still below zero; moving averages only converging).
- Sentiment hedging is elevated (OI put/call 1.2), suggesting investors are still wary.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $2.379B, +6.21% YoY → top-line growth remains positive.
Net income: $300M, -279.64% YoY → major deterioration vs prior year base.
EPS: $0.95, -275.93% YoY → earnings power is the key concern despite revenue growth.
Growth read: positive revenue trend but profitability/credit-cost dynamics are dominating the equity story right now.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: predominantly positive actions (multiple Buy reiterations, an upgrade to Outperform, and several price-target raises into the mid-$50s).
Notable changes: Deutsche Bank raised PT to $57 (Buy); BofA raised PT to $51 (Buy); UBS initiated Buy with $56; Evercore upgraded to Outperform with $53.
Mixed note: Truist trimmed PT slightly to $50 and cut forward EPS estimates post-Q4, citing slower margin expansion and smaller buyback than previously expected (still a Buy).
Wall Street pros: ROTCE re-rating story, margin/NIM expansion potential, buybacks, simplification lowering volatility.
Wall Street cons: credit risk uncertainty and near-term earnings/model cuts tied to slower margin expansion.

15 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ALLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALLY is 53.71 USD with a low forecast of 48 USD and a high forecast of 70 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

12 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 42.130

Low

Averages

53.71

High

Current: 42.130

Low

Averages

53.71

High

Evercore ISI

Outperform

downgrade

$53 -> $51

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

Reason

Evercore ISI

Price Target

$53 -> $51

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

downgrade

Outperform

Reason

Evercore ISI lowered the firm's price target on Ally Financial to $51 from $53 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares following EPS estimate revisions after the Q4 report.

Truist

Buy

maintain

$51 -> $50

2026-01-26

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$51 -> $50

2026-01-26

maintain

Buy

Reason

Truist lowered the firm's price target on Ally Financial to $50 from $51 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q4 results. The firm is also cutting its FY26 EPS view by 25c to $5.25 and its FY27 view by 5c to $6.40, with main drivers being a lower net financing revenue due to margin expansion slower than previously expected and smaller buyback amount than before, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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ALLY Should I Buy

ALLY Should I Buy

Should You Buy Ally Financial Inc (ALLY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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