Should I Buy ALLO? ALLO 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Allogene Therapeutics Inc (ALLO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

1.690

1 Day change

3.68%

52 Week Range

3.780

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now as a high-upside biotech trade: price is sitting just above the key pivot/support zone (Pivot 1.691) after a sharp pullback, while the broader trend structure remains bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200).
Options positioning is strongly call-skewed and implied volatility is elevated, signaling traders are pricing in a potential catalyst-driven move.
Wall Street has recently turned meaningfully positive with fresh Buy/Outperform calls and large upside-to-target ($5–$8 vs ~$1.74), supporting near-term re-rating potential.
No negative news flow in the past week, so the selloff looks more like positioning/volatility than a fresh fundamental hit.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure on moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests the primary trend is still up despite the -6.95% regular-session drop.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0138) but contracting, implying upside momentum is weakening and a near-term bounce needs follow-through.
RSI: RSI_6 = 56.65 (neutral), consistent with “pullback in an uptrend” rather than an overbought/oversold extreme.
Levels: Pivot 1.691 is the immediate line to hold; below that, S1 1.494 is next. Upside levels are R1 1.887 then R2 2.009—reasonable near-term bounce targets if pivot holds.
Pattern-based odds (next day/week/month): modestly positive drift (+0.62% / +0.65% / +1.92%), supportive of a buy-the-dip attempt near current levels.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment (puts vs calls): Open interest put/call = 0.75 (more calls outstanding than puts) and volume put/call = 0.06 (today’s flow overwhelmingly call-heavy).
Volatility: 30D IV ~272% and IV percentile 92.4 indicate the market is pricing a large move; this typically coincides with catalyst expectations.
Activity: Today’s volume is small in absolute terms (36 contracts) but elevated vs its own recent average (today vs 30D avg volume ~20.69), while today’s open interest is also elevated (today vs OI avg ~123.28), suggesting positioning is building.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Upcoming clinical catalyst: management guidance points to an interim futility analysis of minimal residual disease clearance in early Q2 (per analyst note), which can re-price the stock quickly if read-through is favorable.
- Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-03-04 (after hours) can shift sentiment around cash burn and runway.
- Analyst-driven re-rating: recent initiation/upgrade cycle (UBS Buy; Citizens Outperform) provides a narrative tailwind and attracts incremental institutional attention.
- Broader tape: biotech fundamentals “inflecting” theme (per UBS) can lift small/mid-cap biotech beta names.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Event risk is high: elevated implied volatility reflects the market’s expectation of sharp moves; unfavorable trial updates or cautious commentary can pressure shares.
- Recent price action: the -6.95% session drop indicates weak near-term demand and increases the chance of a pivot break toward S1 (1.494).
- Fundamentals remain pre-commercial: lack of revenue and ongoing losses keep the stock sensitive to financing/runway concerns.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: reported as 0 (no meaningful top-line contribution).
Profitability: Net income fell to -$41.4M (worse YoY by ~37.55%), and EPS declined to -$0.19 (worse YoY by ~40.62%).
Margin profile: Gross margin reported as 0 (down), consistent with a development-stage biotech where valuation is driven primarily by clinical progress and funding outlook rather than current earnings power.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

2026-01-07: UBS initiated coverage at Buy with an $8 price target, highlighting improving biotech fundamentals and upcoming catalysts.
2026-01-09: Citizens upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform with a $5 price target, citing increased confidence in enrollment timelines and ALPHA3 probability of success; also models meaningful long-term risk-adjusted sales potential.
Wall Street pros: strong upside-to-target and catalyst-based thesis; improving sentiment via initiation/upgrade momentum.
Wall Street cons: thesis is heavily dependent on clinical execution and milestone outcomes; near-term fundamentals (losses/no revenue) don’t provide valuation “floor” support.

11 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ALLO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALLO is 8.5 USD with a low forecast of 5 USD and a high forecast of 14 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

10 Buy

0 Hold

1 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 1.630

Low

Averages

8.5

High

Current: 1.630

Low

Averages

8.5

High

Citizens

Market Perform

Outperform

upgrade

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

Reason

Citizens

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

upgrade

Market Perform

Outperform

Reason

Citizens upgraded Allogene Therapeutics to Outperform from Market Perform with a $5 price target. The company provided guidance that the interim futility analysis of minimal residual disease clearance would occur in early Q2, which bolsters confidence not only in enrollment timelines, but also in ALPHA3's probability of clinical and statistical success, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citizens sees $1B of risk-adjusted sales for cema-cel at peak by 2033.

UBS

Buy

initiated

2026-01-07

Reason

UBS

Price Target

2026-01-07

initiated

Buy

Reason

UBS initiated coverage of Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO) with a Buy rating and $8 price target as the analyst initiated or assumed coverage on 22 small-to-mid cap biotech names. After a rough period, biotech fundamentals are now inflecting, contends the analyst, who expects investor confidence to recover and sees this positioning biotech for strong performance in 2026. Among the group, top picks include Apogee Therapeutics (APGE), Cogent Biosciences (COGT), Kodiak Sciences (KOD), Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA), Inventiva (IVA), SAB Biotherapeutics (SABS) and Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX), which the analyst highlights as having key upcoming catalysts, de-risked best-in-class portfolios, strong data, and broader pipelines.

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ALLO Should I Buy

ALLO Should I Buy

Should You Buy Allogene Therapeutics Inc (ALLO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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