Should I Buy ALLE? ALLE 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Allegion PLC (ALLE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

179.770

1 Day change

2.24%

52 Week Range

180.680

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a great buy right now for an impatient entry: price is extended (RSI6 ~70.8) and sitting just below/around near-term resistance (R1 168.23 / R2 169.73), which skews risk/reward toward a short pullback.
Trend is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 and MACD expanding), so this is a quality name to own—but the current setup favors waiting for a dip closer to 165.8 (pivot) or 163.35 (S1) for a cleaner entry.
Options positioning is notably bullish (very low put/call ratios), but hedge funds have been net sellers recently, which tempers the near-term chase.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: no strong buy trigger today (no AI Stock Picker signal; no SwingMax entry), so there’s no “must-buy-now” tactical edge.
Overall call: HOLD today; buy only on a pullback toward support or a breakout/close above ~169.7 with momentum.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200; MACD histogram +0.216 and expanding, confirming upward momentum.
Overbought/extension: RSI_6 at 70.767 signals the move is stretched; near-term upside may be limited without consolidation.
Key levels: Pivot 165.791; Support S1 163.354 (then S2 161.848). Resistance R1 168.228 and R2 169.734.
Probabilistic near-term drift (pattern-based): modest expected upside (next day +0.68% chance-weighted), but weak follow-through over week/month (+0.18% / +0.04%), consistent with “trend up but near-term stretched.”
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put/Call ratios are very low (OI PCR 0.18; Volume PCR 0.25) → options market positioning skewed bullish.
Activity: Today’s option volume 25 vs 30D average (today vs avg = 43.1) suggests below-average activity; open interest today 1,499 with today vs OI avg 129.9 indicates OI is relatively elevated.
Volatility: IV30 25.67 vs historical vol 19.8; IV percentile 64.8 implies options are priced richer than usual (more expensive premium), often seen around event risk or after a move.
Interpretation: Bullish skew, but not a “panic-buy” signal—more consistent with optimism while premiums are somewhat elevated.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Fundamentals trending up: 2025/Q3 delivered solid YoY growth (revenue +10.66%, EPS +9.55%), supporting the broader uptrend.
- Earnings catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-17 (pre-market) can re-rate the stock if guidance/organic growth beats expectations.
- Technical backdrop remains constructive (bullish moving-average stack and positive MACD), keeping the medium-term bias upward.
- Options sentiment skew is bullish (very low put/call ratios).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Near-term technical stretch: RSI6 ~70.8 and price near resistance (168–170 zone) increases odds of a pause/pullback that can hurt an “impatient” entry.
- Hedge funds selling: reported selling increased 306.97% over the last quarter, a notable sentiment headwind.
- Analyst targets have been cut recently (valuation compression commentary), which can cap near-term multiple expansion.
- No supportive newsflow in the last week (no fresh catalysts to justify chasing strength).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 1.0702B, +10.66% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Net income: 188.4M, +8.15% YoY (profit growth tracking revenue).
EPS: 2.18, +9.55% YoY (healthy earnings momentum).
Gross margin: 45.77%, +2.44% YoY (margin expansion supports quality of growth).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent stance: Both Barclays and Wells Fargo reiterate Equal Weight (neutral) while trimming price targets.
2026-01-07 Barclays: PT cut to $180 from $187, maintained Equal Weight.
2025-12-16 Wells Fargo: PT cut to $175 from $185, maintained Equal Weight; expects initial guidance range of ~2.5%–4.5% organic growth and $8.65–$8.85 EPS bridge.
Wall Street “pros vs cons” view: Pros—steady organic growth and solid earnings bridge; Cons—valuation/multiple compression and less conviction to recommend aggressive buying at current levels (hence neutral ratings and lower PTs).
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; insider trend noted as neutral.

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ALLE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALLE is 179.29 USD with a low forecast of 165 USD and a high forecast of 190 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

6 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 175.830

Low

165

Averages

179.29

High

190

Current: 175.830

Low

165

Averages

179.29

High

190

Barclays

Equal Weight

downgrade

$187 -> $180

AI Analysis

2026-01-07

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$187 -> $180

AI Analysis

2026-01-07

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Allegion to $180 from $187 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted price targets in the multi-industry group as part of its Q4 outlook. It sees a "firmer" demand outlook amid artificial intelligence order strength.

Wells Fargo

Joseph O'Dea

Equal Weight

downgrade

$185 -> $175

2025-12-16

Reason

Wells Fargo

Joseph O'Dea

Price Target

$185 -> $175

2025-12-16

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Wells Fargo analyst Joseph O'Dea lowered the firm's price target on Allegion to $175 from $185 in sympathy with relative valuation compression, while keeping an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Through its 2026 earnings bridge work, the firm expects an initial guidance range of positive 2.5%-4.5% for organic growth and $8.65-$8.85 for EPS. Organic growth drives about 70% of the high-single-digit EPS growth, Wells adds.

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ALLE Should I Buy

ALLE Should I Buy

Should You Buy Allegion PLC (ALLE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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