Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: near-term edge looks unfavorable (pattern-based model points to ~-1.1% 1-week / ~-4.2% 1-month bias).
Trend is still bullish (stacked moving averages), but momentum is cooling (MACD histogram contracting) and price is sitting just below near resistance.
Options positioning is moderately bullish (calls > puts), but insider selling has surged, which weakens the immediate risk/reward.
Better setup would be a clean break/close above ~35.04–35.87 or a pullback that holds ~33.70 support; at current ~34.45 it’s a “hold / not an urgent buy.”
Technical Analysis
Price: ~34.45 (closed), down modestly on the day; market risk-off backdrop (S&P 500 -0.85%).
Trend: Bullish MA structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) supports an ongoing uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram positive (0.219) but contracting → upside momentum is fading short term.
RSI(6): 63.3 (neutral-to-slightly-warm), not oversold → no “must-buy” dip signal.
Key levels: Pivot 33.70 (important near-term support); Resistance R1 35.04 then R2 35.87. A failure to reclaim R1 soon increases odds of a drift back toward 33.70/32.35.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment skew: Put/Call OI ratio 0.41 suggests positioning leans bullish (more calls than puts outstanding).
Put/Call volume ratio 0.64 also leans bullish (calls leading), though not extreme.
Volatility: 30D IV ~51.9 vs historical vol ~43.9 → options pricing implies elevated uncertainty vs realized.
IV percentile ~50 and IV rank ~13.6 → not “panic-high” IV; premium is elevated but not at extremes.
Net: Options market is cautiously bullish, but not screaming “aggressive upside” given elevated IV and no strong directional signal from proprietary modules.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
12
Positive Catalysts
Pipeline sentiment improved after Phase 2 VIBRANCE-2 readout: multiple firms reiterated Buy/Outperform and highlighted de-risking (supports longer-term upside narrative).
Potential event-driven catalyst: progression/clarity on alixorexton program and any updates on competitive positioning.
Corporate action angle: market watching ALKS’s Avadel bid timeline (deal expected to close Q1 2026 per commentary).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
citing results not clearly “best-in-class,” which can cap near-term multiple expansion.
Takeaway: Fundamentally stable with great gross margins, but the latest quarter shows decelerating earnings power (not the ideal “buy right now” backdrop for a quick win).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Street stance is broadly constructive: multiple Buy/Outperform notes with price targets clustering in the ~$45–$55 range.
Recent change pattern: one meaningful cut (Deutsche Bank $55→$45, still Buy) after data didn’t clear very high “best-in-class” expectations; others (Truist) raised/maintained bullish targets (e.g., $50–$55) citing de-risking and competitive read-through.
Wall St pros: de-risked clinical narrative, perceived clinician interest in narcolepsy category, upside to estimates if Phase 3/reg path strengthens.
Wall St cons: competitive differentiation debate (not clearly best-in-class), data interpretation uncertainty, and sentiment vulnerability on any incremental trial nuance.
Wall Street analysts forecast ALKS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALKS is 46.17 USD with a low forecast of 37 USD and a high forecast of 58 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ALKS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALKS is 46.17 USD with a low forecast of 37 USD and a high forecast of 58 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 33.550
Low
37
Averages
46.17
High
58
Current: 33.550
Low
37
Averages
46.17
High
58
Jefferies
Hold
downgrade
$23
AI Analysis
2025-11-26
Reason
Jefferies
Price Target
$23
AI Analysis
2025-11-26
downgrade
Hold
Reason
Jefferies lowered the firm's price target on Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL) to $22.50 from $23 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares as the firm expects the deal to be acquired by Alkermes (ALKS) to close in Q1 of 2026 after Lundbeck decided not to raise its November 14 offer. The firm now thinks the chances of a competing bid are unlikely and lowered its target to reflect Alkermes' November 18 offer to acquire Avadel for $22.50 per share, including $21 upfront and a $1.50 per share CVR.
Guggenheim
Buy
upgrade
$28 -> $43
2025-11-18
Reason
Guggenheim
Price Target
$28 -> $43
2025-11-18
upgrade
Buy
Reason
Guggenheim raised the firm's price target on Centessa (CNTA) to $43 from $28 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the "promising" preliminary readout from the ORX750 CRYSTAL-1 Ph2a study as well as the "relatively underwhelming" results from alixorexton in NT2 that were reported by Alkermes (ALKS).
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