Buy now for a momentum/position entry: trend structure is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and price is holding above the pivot (22.218), suggesting buyers still control the tape.
Wall Street sentiment is strongly positive with a cluster of recent price-target raises (to ~$25–$30) and multiple Overweight/Outperform/Buy ratings, which typically supports continued bid under the stock.
Near-term upside is capped by nearby resistance at 23.708; a clean push through that level would open room toward 24.628, while a break below 22.218 would weaken the immediate setup.
Offsetting risk: hedge funds have been aggressive net sellers recently, and the next earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-03-02 could introduce event-driven volatility—still, for an impatient buyer, the current technical posture + analyst upgrades favor buying over waiting.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish moving-average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) indicates an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0951) but contracting, consistent with a pullback/flattening that may be ending rather than accelerating downside.
RSI: RSI(6) at 58.0 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought), leaving room for continuation without immediate exhaustion.
Levels: Pivot support 22.218 (key line to hold). Resistance R1 23.708 (near-term breakout level), then R2 24.628. Supports S1 20.728, S2 19.808.
Pattern-based bias: Similar-pattern stats imply mild positive next-day odds, but slightly negative 1-month expectation (-1.43%), reinforcing a “buy for trend/near-term push” rather than an aggressive long-term chase at any price.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning (OI): Put/Call OI ratio at 0.1 (calls dominate open interest) signals bullish longer-dated positioning/skew.
Flow (today): Put/Call volume ratio at 3.57 indicates put-heavy trading today; with total volume low (32 contracts) but volume vs 30D avg elevated (9.76x), it looks like a burst of hedging/protection rather than broad capitulation.
Volatility: IV30 at 51.31 vs historical vol 29.7 suggests options are pricing sizable movement; however IV percentile (20.4) / IV rank (15.9) implies IV is low relative to its own recent history (options not “max expensive” vs the past year).
Business momentum signal: Strong YoY revenue growth in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3 +43.5%) supports the growth narrative.
Technical posture: Price above pivot with bullish MA alignment supports continuation if the stock clears 23.708 resistance.
Potential sentiment tailwind: Managed care/Medicare Advantage viewed by several analysts as a “cleaner way” into 2026, implying potential multiple expansion if execution continues.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
on 2026-03-02 after hours (EPS est. -0.
could be a volatility catalyst in either direction.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 993.7M, up +43.51% YoY (clear top-line acceleration).
Profitability: Net income 3.729M, down -114.12% YoY; EPS 0.02, down -114.29% YoY (profit/EPS trending weaker/volatile despite revenue growth).
Gross margin: 11.84%, up +13.85% YoY (margin improvement is a positive sign, but not yet translating cleanly into bottom-line stability).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Strongly improving—several consecutive price target raises in January 2026 (to ~$25–$30) with reiterated Buy/Overweight/Outperform ratings.
Notable calls: Baird to $28 (Outperform) and even cites a long-term path to $59; KeyBanc to $28 (Overweight); Piper to $30 (Overweight); TD Cowen to $25 (Buy); JPMorgan to $23 (Overweight).
Wall Street pros: Seen as a differentiated Medicare Advantage/value-based care play with improving cohort dynamics and favorable positioning into 2026.
Wall Street cons: Sector backdrop uncertainty and the need to prove durable earnings power (given EPS/net income volatility) remain the main objections.
Wall Street analysts forecast ALHC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALHC is 21.81 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 30 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ALHC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALHC is 21.81 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 30 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 21.150
Low
18
Averages
21.81
High
30
Current: 21.150
Low
18
Averages
21.81
High
30
JPMorgan
NULL -> Overweight
upgrade
$23 -> $26
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$23 -> $26
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
upgrade
NULL -> Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Alignment Healthcare to $26 from $23 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares.
Baird
Baird
Outperform
maintain
$22 -> $28
2026-01-30
Reason
Baird
Baird
Price Target
$22 -> $28
2026-01-30
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Baird raised the firm's price target on Alignment Healthcare to $28 from $22 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model and sees a path to $59 per share representig a 163% upside.
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