Should I Buy ALGT? ALGT 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Allegiant Travel Co (ALGT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

114.790

1 Day change

15.46%

52 Week Range

117.250

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Buy now: trend structure is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) with price sitting just above a key pivot/support area (~90), offering a reasonable “buy-right-now” entry for an impatient investor.
Sentiment is supportive: hedge funds are accumulating (+507.5% QoQ buying), options positioning is call-skewed, and analyst targets were raised into a major catalyst (earnings + Sun Country acquisition narrative).
Near-term upside path: reclaim/hold above 90 then challenge resistance at ~94.41; a break higher opens room toward ~97.08.
Main near-term risk is an earnings disappointment (after-hours today) given recent run-up, but current positioning/estimates revisions lean constructive.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish moving-average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) signals an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.105 (still negative) but contracting, implying downside momentum is fading and trend can re-assert upward.
RSI (6): 64.8 = neutral-to-bullish (not overbought), consistent with continued grind higher rather than an exhausted spike.
Key levels: Pivot/support ~90.09 (near current price ~91.8); resistance R1 ~94.41 then R2 ~97.08. Below pivot, next supports ~85.78 then ~83.11.
Pattern-based odds (similar candlesticks): modest edge near-term (next month +4.83% bias), not a strong one-day signal.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put-call ratios (OI 0.52; volume 0.35) indicate bullish call skew / risk-on sentiment.
Activity: Today’s volume is ~14.84x the 30-day average (spike in attention), though absolute contracts are small (23 total).
Volatility: IV30 ~58.7 vs historical vol ~82.7; IV percentile 44 (mid-range) suggests options are not extremely “priced for panic,” supportive for long equity into catalysts.
Open interest: Calls (3676) exceed puts (1914), consistent with net bullish positioning.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings after hours (2026-02-04); expectations are constructive (Est EPS ~2.01).
- Estimate revisions: Last 3 months show 9 upward EPS revisions / 0 downward; revenue revisions also net positive (6 up / 1 down).
- M&A narrative: Sun Country acquisition framed as “transformational” by Wolfe; synergy/EPS accretion story can drive rerating.
- Institutional flow: Hedge funds are buying aggressively (+507.5% QoQ).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Into-earnings risk: Price can gap either direction after-hours; any guidance miss could break the ~90 pivot.
- Recent fundamentals still mixed: Revenue essentially flat YoY and margins down in the latest reported quarter.
- Technical near resistance: First meaningful resistance sits close at ~94.41, which can cap upside if momentum fades.
- No supportive insider signal: Insiders are neutral (no notable recent buying trend).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: ~$561.9M, essentially flat/slightly down YoY (-0.05%) → limited top-line momentum.
Profitability: Net income still negative (-$43.6M) but improved YoY (loss narrowed ~18.4%); EPS -2.41 improved ~17.6% YoY.
Margins: Gross margin 53.52%, down ~4.12% YoY → cost/price pressure still present despite improving losses.
Overall: improving bottom-line trend off a weak base, but not yet a clean growth quarter; the market is leaning on forward outlook/synergies.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Clear upward shift in Street stance and targets since Dec–Jan (multiple upgrades/target raises).
Key changes:
- Wolfe (2026-01-20) upgraded to Outperform, PT $108; highlights transformational Sun Country deal and large EPS upside by 2029.
- Citi (2026-01-07) Neutral, PT raised to $109.
- Susquehanna (2026-01-09) Neutral, PT raised to $100.
- BofA (2026-01-06) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform, PT raised to $95.
- Deutsche Bank (2025-12-12) upgraded to Buy, PT $105.
Wall Street pros: improving demand/airline backdrop into 2026, controlled capacity growth, potential cost benefits (fleet), and sizable synergy/EPS narrative from the Sun Country acquisition.
Wall Street cons: several firms remain Neutral despite higher PTs (mixed conviction), reflecting execution/guidance dependence and prior valuation/run-up sensitivity.
Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available (no signal from that channel).

ALGT Should I Buy