Good buy right now for an impatient, momentum-oriented entry: the stock is gapping up ~10.6% pre-market on a clear earnings/revenue beat and “record revenue” headlines.
Near-term path is driven by event momentum (earnings + 2026 product launch narrative), which typically supports follow-through buying.
Offsetting sentiment from options (heavy put volume) suggests some investors are hedging/positioning for volatility, but not enough to outweigh the earnings catalyst today.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: No signal on given stock today (no AI Stock Picker; no recent SwingMax).
Technical Analysis
Price action: pre-market at 178.36 is well above the listed pivot (163.94) and prior resistance levels (R1 170.64 / R2 174.78), signaling a breakout/gap-up regime rather than a range trade.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-1.602) but “negatively contracting,” implying downside momentum has been fading into the print (often consistent with a reversal when a catalyst hits).
RSI(6) ~40 (neutral-to-soft): not overbought, so the gap-up is not coming from an already-extended RSI condition.
Key levels (from provided map): if price holds above ~174–175 it reinforces the breakout; prior resistance can act as support after the gap.
Pattern-based forward look (provided): ~70% chance of about -0.32% next day, +0.76% next week, +6.02% next month—modestly positive beyond the immediate reaction.
Options Data
Neutral
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Open Interest put/call ~1.0 is balanced, but the volume put/call at 2.63 is decisively bearish/defensive for today (hedging or speculation into the move).
Volatility: 30D IV 61.46 vs historical vol 27.78, with IV percentile 77.69 (elevated). Market is pricing large swings post-earnings.
Activity spike: today’s option volume 13,109 vs 30-day average (811.7% of avg) indicates unusually strong attention and positioning immediately around the catalyst.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
12
Positive Catalysts
Q4 earnings beat: EPS reported 3.29 vs consensus near 2.97 (per news summary), supporting a fundamental re-rating.
Record Q4 2025 revenue (~$1.048B) and Clear Aligner volume growth narrative.
2026 product launches planned (forward catalyst stream after the quarter).
Analyst tone recently constructive: multiple Outperform/Buy ratings with targets up to $200; Mizuho explicitly raised PT to $200 (Jan 2026).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
despite the gap-up—signals skepticism/hedging and increases the chance of sharp intraday swings.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $1.0476B, +5.26% YoY (steady growth).
Profitability: Net income $135.76M, +30.78% YoY; EPS 1.89, +35.97% YoY (strong earnings leverage vs revenue growth).
Margin: Gross margin 65.26%, -6.81% YoY (key watch item; suggests higher costs/price-mix pressure even as earnings rose).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: leaning more bullish into 2026—Mizuho raised price target to $200 from $170 and reiterated Outperform (2026-01-20); Stifel reiterated Buy with $200 PT (2025-12-05).
Mixed-but-constructive coverage: Evercore ISI stayed Outperform with $170 PT while citing web-traffic data implying shipments ahead of Street expectations (2025-12-09). Barclays initiated at Equal Weight with $170 PT (2025-12-08), the main neutral note.
Wall Street pros: improving industry survey sentiment (Mizuho), potential competitive benefit from competitor pricing changes (Stifel), and data points suggesting stronger shipments (Evercore).
Wall Street cons: at least one major neutral initiator (Barclays) and price targets clustered around $170 for some firms—pre-market 178 already exceeds those, so upside may rely on the higher-end $200 bull targets and continued execution.
Wall Street analysts forecast ALGN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALGN is 176.7 USD with a low forecast of 150 USD and a high forecast of 205 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ALGN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALGN is 176.7 USD with a low forecast of 150 USD and a high forecast of 205 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 175.620
Low
150
Averages
176.7
High
205
Current: 175.620
Low
150
Averages
176.7
High
205
Baird
Outperform
maintain
$205 -> $218
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
Reason
Baird
Price Target
$205 -> $218
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Baird raised the firm's price target on Align Technology to $218 from $205 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q4 results that showed encouraging steady improvements. Baird said they remain buyers of the shares of AlignTechnology shares.
Wells Fargo
Overweight
maintain
$181 -> $200
2026-02-05
New
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$181 -> $200
2026-02-05
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Align Technology to $200 from $181 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company's Q4 beat reflects international strength. 2026 guidance of 3%-4% growth appears achievable with mid-single digit aligner volume growth offsetting 1%-2% ASP pressure, Wells adds.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for ALGN
