Should I Buy ALG? ALG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Alamo Group Inc (ALG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

208.380

1 Day change

2.81%

52 Week Range

233.290

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: momentum is weakening (MACD histogram negative and expanding) while price sits near resistance (~$196.8), which is a poor entry for an impatient buyer.
Options positioning leans defensive (put open interest > call open interest; OI put/call ratio 1.31), not confirming an aggressive bullish setup.
Fundamentals are mixed: revenue is still growing, but profitability (net income, EPS, and gross margin) declined YoY in the latest quarter (2025/Q3).
With no proprietary buy signals today and no near-term positive news catalysts, the risk/reward favors waiting rather than buying immediately.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.126 and negatively expanding suggests bearish momentum is building rather than reversing.
RSI: RSI(6) at 69.286 is near overbought territory; upside follow-through is less attractive versus pullback risk.
Moving averages: Converging MAs indicate a lack of clean trend and increased chop risk.
Key levels: Pivot ~192.94; resistance R1 ~196.79 (price 195.52 is close to resistance), then R2 ~199.17. Supports at S1 ~189.09 and S2 ~186.71.
Near-term pattern stats: Similar-pattern analysis implies a modest bullish bias (next week +4.43%), but it conflicts with the weakening MACD and proximity to resistance—more consistent with “limited upside unless it breaks ~196.8/199.2 cleanly.”

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest: Calls 204 vs Puts 267 → OI put/call ratio 1.31, indicating more protective/defensive positioning than bullish speculation.
Volume: Reported option volume is 0 today (put/call volume ratio 0.0), so sentiment from today’s flow is not informative.
Volatility: 30D IV ~24.97 vs historical vol ~21.54; IV percentile ~53.2 (middle-of-the-road), not signaling a strong “priced-in” catalyst.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Industrial segment described as still strong by analysts; if it sustains, it can stabilize results even while Vegetation lags.
- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-25 (After Hours) could be a catalyst if margins/EPS re-accelerate.
- Pattern-based forward returns show some short-term upside skew (not a guarantee, but supportive if price breaks above ~196.8/199.2).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical deterioration: Negative and expanding MACD increases odds of a pullback from current levels.
- Price location: Trading just below a key resistance band (R1 ~196.8 / R2 ~199.2), which often caps near-term upside.
- Latest quarter profitability declined YoY (net income, EPS, and gross margin down), raising concern that revenue growth isn’t translating into earnings growth.
- Vegetation business still looking for a YoY inflection per DA Davidson; continued weakness can pressure overall margins.
- No recent news flow to provide a fresh, event-driven bullish catalyst.
- No notable hedge fund/insider accumulation signals; congress trading data not available.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $420.042M, +4.67% YoY (continued top-line growth).
Net income: $25.383M, -7.38% YoY (profitability weakening).
EPS: $2.10, -7.89% YoY.
Gross margin: 23.21%, -3.81% YoY (margin compression is the key negative trend).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst actions (trend): Price targets were cut after a Q3 earnings miss, signaling reduced confidence in near-term upside.
DA Davidson (2025-11-11): Neutral; PT cut to $190 from $225; cited lack of Vegetation inflection and caution on 2026 comps.
Baird (2025-11-10): Outperform; PT cut to $212 from $260; updated model after Q3 and noted strategic priorities.
Wall Street pros vs cons view:
- Pros: Industrial segment remains strong; at least one firm maintains an Outperform rating.
- Cons: PT cuts across the board, Vegetation weakness, and margin/EPS declines—collectively argue against chasing the stock near resistance at ~$195.5.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ALG stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALG is 201 USD with a low forecast of 190 USD and a high forecast of 212 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 202.690

Low

190

Averages

201

High

212

Current: 202.690

Low

190

Averages

201

High

212

DA Davidson

Michael Shlisky

Neutral

downgrade

$225 -> $190

AI Analysis

2025-11-11

Reason

DA Davidson

Michael Shlisky

Price Target

$225 -> $190

AI Analysis

2025-11-11

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

DA Davidson analyst Michael Shlisky lowered the firm's price target on Alamo Group to $190 from $225 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after its Q3 earnings miss. The company's Vegetation business is still looking for a y/y inflection, while the Industrial segment remains strong, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm adds that while the management was a bit more cautious on Industrial in 2026 given tough comps, its trends remain favorable.

Baird

Mircea Dobre

Outperform -> NULL

downgrade

$260 -> $212

2025-11-10

Reason

Baird

Mircea Dobre

Price Target

$260 -> $212

2025-11-10

downgrade

Outperform -> NULL

Reason

Baird analyst Mircea Dobre lowered the firm's price target on Alamo Group to $212 from $260 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q3 results where the CEO laid out strategic priorities.

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ALG Should I Buy

ALG Should I Buy

Should You Buy Alamo Group Inc (ALG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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