Should I Buy ALEC? ALEC 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Alector Inc (ALEC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

1.960

1 Day change

7.69%

52 Week Range

3.400

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: the dominant driver is negative (Phase 3 miss + financing overhang), and Wall Street’s only cited analyst still rates it Underweight with a price target far below the current price.
Price action is fragile: despite short-term bullish moving averages, momentum is deteriorating (MACD negative and widening) and price sits below the pivot, making downside tests of support more likely.
Options imply “event-risk/high uncertainty” (extreme IV) rather than clean bullish conviction.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
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Politicians/congress/influential trading: no recent congress trading data available; no notable politician activity provided.

Technical Analysis

Trend/MAs: Bullish alignment (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests a rebound structure is still intact, but it’s not being confirmed by momentum.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.00771 and negatively expanding = weakening momentum / bearish drift risk.
RSI: RSI_6 ~55.6 (neutral) = no oversold “snapback” signal.
Levels: Current ~1.90 is below Pivot 1.928; near-term resistance 2.02 then 2.08. Support 1.83 then 1.78. A break below 1.83 increases probability of a deeper fade.
Near-term pattern stats (provided): modest edge near-flat next day/week, but a higher +10.21% 1-month projection is not enough to outweigh current catalyst/financing risk.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put/Call OI ratio 0.44 is call-heavy (more bullish positioning/hedging skew to calls).
Activity: Extremely low volume (total volume 2; put volume 0) = today’s tape isn’t giving a reliable sentiment read.
Volatility: 30D IV ~309.7% with IV percentile ~87 = options are pricing very high uncertainty; typically coincides with stress/news/financing risk and can work against “impatient” long entries.
Interpretation: Call-heavy OI is a mild positive, but the very high IV + low volume suggests the market is bracing for turbulence rather than confidently bidding upside.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Biomarker response in Phase 3 INFRONT-3 was successful (scientific signal could support future strategy/partner discussions).
- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 (after hours) can act as a reset point if cash runway/guidance surprises positively.
- Short-term technical MA structure is still “bullish” (could support bounces if supports hold).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Major headline risk: Phase 3 INFRONT-3 failed the clinical co-primary endpoint (core value driver impaired; typically leads to repricing and raises dilution risk).
- Post-trial sentiment hit: analysts reportedly downgraded after results; explicit concerns raised about future financing.
- Legal overhang: Levi & Korsinsky investigation headline adds pressure and can deter new buyers.
- Market context: small-cap biotech + risk-off tape can amplify downside when financing concerns rise.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $3.26M, down -78.75% YoY (sharp contraction).
Profitability: Net income -$34.667M (still deeply negative; loss magnitude remains large).
EPS: -0.34, down -20.93% YoY (worsening per-share loss).
Overall: financial trajectory does not currently support an “impatient” buy; the key swing factor is cash runway/financing, which is a known concern in the news flow.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating/targets (Morgan Stanley):
- 2025-11-17: Underweight maintained; PT cut to $0.75 from $1.50 after Phase 3 failure; revenues for AL101 added but heavily discounted.
- 2026-01-08: Underweight maintained; PT raised slightly to $0.90 from $0.75.
Street pro view (pros): any residual value may come from other programs (e.g., AL101) and sector tailwinds for select biotechs.
Street con view (cons): clinical failure plus financing/dilution risk dominates; PT ($0.90) implies material downside from ~$1.90, making it unattractive as a buy right now.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ALEC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALEC is 2.1 USD with a low forecast of 0.9 USD and a high forecast of 5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

5 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

Current: 1.820

Low

0.9

Averages

2.1

High

Current: 1.820

Low

0.9

Averages

2.1

High

Morgan Stanley

Underweight

maintain

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

maintain

Underweight

Reason

Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Alector to 90c from 75c and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm sees a continuation of U.S. small-to-mid cap biotech's outperformance in 2026 as commercial names transition from "capital consumers to producers" and Large Cap Biopharma faces a looming patent cliff, the analyst tells investors in an outlook note for the group.

Morgan Stanley

NULL -> Underweight

downgrade

2025-11-17

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

2025-11-17

downgrade

NULL -> Underweight

Reason

Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Alector to 75c from $1.50 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm, which is updating its model to account for the Phase 3 INFRONT-3 trial evaluating latozinemab failing to meet its co-primary endpoint, now includes revenues for AL101 in Alzheimer's disease but in a "heavily discounted" fashion, the analyst tells investors.

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ALEC Should I Buy

ALEC Should I Buy

Should You Buy Alector Inc (ALEC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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