Not a good buy right now: momentum is strong but the stock looks short-term stretched (RSI elevated) and is trading near resistance.
No Intellectia buy signals today (AI Stock Picker/SwingMax), so there’s no high-conviction timing edge for an impatient entry.
Fundamentals in the latest quarter (2025/Q4) deteriorated sharply with deeper losses, which limits near-term upside confidence.
If you must act now, this is more of a chase near resistance than a favorable risk/reward entry; overall stance: hold/avoid new buys at this level.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, and MACD histogram (0.158) above zero and expanding (positive momentum).
Stretch/overbought risk: RSI_6 at 77.52 suggests the move is extended and vulnerable to a pullback.
Levels: Pivot 41.021; resistance R1 42.243 then R2 42.999; support S1 39.799 then S2 39.043. Current price (41.98) is close to R1, implying limited immediate upside before resistance.
Pattern-based forward odds: Similar-pattern model implies ~-4.04% over the next month, which conflicts with chasing strength.
Analyst support: Roth Capital maintains a Buy and raised price target to $42 (from $35), citing asset value tied to real estate development transition.
Strategic narrative: Transition from orange production to real estate development can be a valuation re-rating driver if execution improves.
Upcoming event: Earnings on 2026-02-09 (after hours) could act as a catalyst if results/updates surprise positively.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
could disappoint given recent loss expansion.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $802K, down 14.22% YoY.
Profitability: Net income -$8.49M, down 53.14% YoY (loss widened).
EPS: -$1.11, down 53.36% YoY.
Gross margin: Deeply negative (reported -773.44), worsening versus prior year—signals significant operating pressure/one-offs and poor near-term earnings quality.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Most recent analyst action (2025-11-26): Roth Capital (Gerry Sweeney) reaffirmed Buy and raised PT to $42 from $35.
Rating/target trend: Positive (price target raised), reflecting improved confidence in asset-value realization via real estate development.
Wall Street pros vs cons view:
Pros: Asset-backed thesis (land/real estate development potential) can support valuation.
Cons: Current financial performance is weak with widening losses, making timing and execution risk high despite the asset story.
Wall Street analysts forecast ALCO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALCO is 42 USD with a low forecast of 42 USD and a high forecast of 42 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ALCO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALCO is 42 USD with a low forecast of 42 USD and a high forecast of 42 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 40.800
Low
42
Averages
42
High
42
Current: 40.800
Low
42
Averages
42
High
42
Roth Capital
Gerry Sweeney
Buy
upgrade
$35 -> $42
AI Analysis
2025-11-26
Reason
Roth Capital
Gerry Sweeney
Price Target
$35 -> $42
AI Analysis
2025-11-26
upgrade
Buy
Reason
Roth Capital analyst Gerry Sweeney raised the firm's price target on Alico to $42 from $35 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Alico continues to transition from orange production to real estate development, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm's price target reflects total projected value of Alico assets of $700M less projected cash burn discounted back to current time period, Roth adds.
