Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the chart setup is still bearish (MACD negative and worsening) and the stock is sitting right on key support (S1 ~168.33), which increases the odds of a near-term breakdown rather than a clean upside run.
Options positioning is mildly bullish (put/call ratios < 1) but volatility is very elevated (IV percentile ~94), implying the market is bracing for a large move—timing risk is high into earnings (2026-02-11).
Fundamentals are not yet reflecting the lithium-price optimism: the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3) showed revenue down YoY and a net loss, so this remains more of a cycle/price-recovery trade than a proven earnings uptrend today.
Trend/price context: ALB closed near 169.58, below the pivot resistance (180.38) and just above S1 support (168.33); this is a weak location on the chart (support-test zone).
Momentum: MACD histogram is -2.891 (below zero) and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6) ~41.8 → not oversold; there is room to fall before a classic “washed-out” bounce signal appears.
Moving averages: converging MAs → consolidation, but with bearish momentum; resolution risk is skewed lower unless price reclaims the pivot.
Key levels: Support S1 ~168.33 then S2 ~160.89; Resistance pivot ~180.38 then R1 ~192.43.
Pattern-based forward odds provided: ~70% chance of about -3.09% next day; weak near-term bias.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment (skew): Put/call ratios below 1 (OI 0.83; volume 0.57) suggest a bullish tilt (more calls than puts).
Activity: today’s option volume is ~199% of the 30-day average → heightened interest/positioning.
Volatility: 30D IV ~70.8 with IV percentile ~94.4 → options are pricing a large move; this typically aligns with event risk (earnings soon) and makes the stock more “headline-sensitive.”
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
Macro/policy catalyst: news of a proposed ~$12B U.S. strategic critical minerals stockpile is supportive for domestic/strategic lithium supply-chain names.
Street narrative improving: multiple firms raised price targets sharply in January, reflecting improving lithium price expectations.
Media sentiment: Jim Cramer explicitly framed Albemarle as a “safer” lithium exposure versus more speculative peers.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
can easily invalidate the current technical setup in either direction.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 1.308B, down ~3.46% YoY → top-line still contracting.
Profitability: Net income -202.4M (worse YoY), EPS -1.72 → still in loss-making territory.
Takeaway: the fundamental picture is not yet in an improving earnings trend; the bullish case depends on the lithium pricing cycle improving into 2026.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: strong wave of price-target increases and a few upgrades to Buy/Outperform in January as lithium price expectations improved.
Notable bullish calls: Truist upgraded to Buy (PT 205); HSBC upgraded to Buy (PT 200); Oppenheimer and RBC reiterated Outperform (PTs ~200+).
Balanced/neutral voices remain: JPMorgan stays Neutral (despite PT raised to 195); Wells Fargo and Citi remain Equal Weight/Neutral.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
Pros: ALB viewed as a best-positioned, higher-quality lithium exposure; improving supply/demand and cost/capex discipline could drive EBITDA recovery in 2026.
Cons: still a commodity-cycle trade with near-term earnings weakness; execution and pricing/guidance risk remains high into upcoming earnings.
Wall Street analysts forecast ALB stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALB is 149.79 USD with a low forecast of 85 USD and a high forecast of 210 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
20 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ALB stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALB is 149.79 USD with a low forecast of 85 USD and a high forecast of 210 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Buy
10 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 156.480
Low
85
Averages
149.79
High
210
Current: 156.480
Low
85
Averages
149.79
High
210
JPMorgan
Jeffrey Zekauskas
Neutral
maintain
$80 -> $195
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
Reason
JPMorgan
Jeffrey Zekauskas
Price Target
$80 -> $195
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
maintain
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas raised the firm's price target on Albemarle to $195 from $80 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
Wells Fargo
Equal Weight
maintain
$135 -> $174
2026-01-26
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$135 -> $174
2026-01-26
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Albemarle to $174 from $135 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm is raising its estimates to reflect the recent increase in lithium prices. Wells now believes Albemarle's 2026 earnings will be toward the high end of its $12-$15/kg scenario.
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