Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram at -2.616 (below zero) with negative momentum still present; contraction suggests selling pressure may be easing, but trend has not flipped bullish.
RSI(6): 42.2 (neutral-to-weak); not oversold, so there’s room for further downside before a “bounce” becomes statistically compelling.
Moving averages: converging MAs typically indicate consolidation after a move; direction remains unresolved but currently not showing a strong uptrend.
Levels to watch:
Resistance/Pivot: 165.418 (must reclaim for a cleaner bullish setup)
Support: 150.856 (S1), then 141.86 (S2)
Upside targets if trend turns: 179.98 (R1), 188.976 (R2)
Price context: last close ~156.39 is below pivot and closer to support than resistance, consistent with a “repair phase” rather than a clean breakout setup.
Options Data
Neutral
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment read: Open-interest put/call ~0.97 is roughly balanced (not extreme fear), while volume put/call ~0.71 is call-leaning (tactical bullishness/speculation).
Volatility: 30D IV ~87.66 vs HV ~93.1 (very high volatility environment); IV percentile ~69.88 indicates options are relatively expensive versus recent history.
Positioning/flow: today’s options volume (10,064) is far below the 5D/10D averages, suggesting no major fresh options “push” today.
Takeaway: options lean mildly bullish on volume, but overall not a strong contrarian capitulation signal; combined with weak price momentum, it does not justify chasing shares immediately.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
12
Positive Catalysts
could reset narrative if margins/earnings quality improves.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Politician/influencer flow: no recent congress trading data available (no external “signal” boost).
Profitability: Net income 91.114M, down -1299.97% YoY and EPS 0.5, down -1100% YoY (earnings quality/normalization concerns despite big revenue growth).
Gross margin: 76.25%, down -1.88% YoY (still high, but slightly compressing).
Takeaway: growth is excellent, but the sharp YoY EPS/net income deterioration is a meaningful overhang until clarified/normalized in upcoming quarters.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst tone skews positive overall: multiple Buys/Overweights/Outperforms with price targets clustered ~$175 to $225.
Notable actions:
Jefferies: Buy, PT $225; called a sharp selloff an “over-reaction,” highlighting positives for Astera in Amazon configurations.
Morgan Stanley: Overweight, PT $210; views NVLink Fusion usage as incremental opportunity rather than a negative.
BNP Paribas Exane: Initiated Outperform, PT $225; views pullback as attractive entry tied to hyperscaler server cycle.
Northland: Upgraded to Outperform, PT $175; expects earnings acceleration with Scorpio X ramp.
Raymond James: Market Perform, no PT; cites fair valuation and long-term structural challenges.
Wall Street cons: valuation/fair-value concerns and structural/chip-ecosystem risks; near-term stock action suggests the market is still digesting competitive/standard dynamics.
People Also Watch
Wall Street analysts forecast ALAB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALAB is 191.54 USD with a low forecast of 80 USD and a high forecast of 225 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ALAB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALAB is 191.54 USD with a low forecast of 80 USD and a high forecast of 225 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 142.820
Low
80
Averages
191.54
High
225
Current: 142.820
Low
80
Averages
191.54
High
225
Jefferies
Jefferies
Buy
maintain
$225
AI Analysis
2025-12-02
Reason
Jefferies
Jefferies
Price Target
$225
AI Analysis
2025-12-02
maintain
Buy
Reason
Jefferies keeps a Buy rating and $225 price target on Astera Labs (ALAB) while calling today's 13% decline in the stock an "over-reaction". The roadmap by unveiled by Amazon.com (AMZN) at ReInvent confirming chip specs for Trainium3/Trainium4 and debuting a new Trainium3 UltraServer highlights improved performance, but overall performance still trails other solutions, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The earlier Trainium3 timing is a negative for Marvell (MRVL) as the revenue is shared with Alchip and Trainium4 will likely be a chiplet sale, also limiting revenue, while on the Networking front, key notables include Astera Labs' Scorpio X switch connecting the XPUs in the Trainium3 racks and NVLink Fusion integration into some Trainium4 configurations, which is actually positive for Astera Labs, Jefferies added.
Morgan Stanley
Joseph Moore
Overweight
maintain
$210
2025-12-02
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Joseph Moore
Price Target
$210
2025-12-02
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore keeps an Overweight rating and $210 price target on Astera Labs (ALAB), saying that while Trainium 3 opportunity has been clear, Amazon's (AMZN) ReInvent highlights that Trainium 4 will use both UALink and NV Link Fusion, and both of these are opportunities for Astera. Amazon's use of NVLink Fusion caused a tailspin in Astera Labs stock, but it is actually incremental, and the company is likely to have significant potential content for both UALink and NVLink Fusion, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for ALAB
