Should I Buy AL? AL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Air Lease Corp (AL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

64.550

1 Day change

0.03%

52 Week Range

64.720

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: upside looks capped near the deal/Street view (Barclays PT $65 vs. $64.56 spot), so risk/reward is unattractive at this level.
Technicals are bullish but short-term stretched (RSI_6 ~74.7) and price is pressing resistance, which reduces the immediacy of a clean entry.
Mixed positioning signals: hedge funds buying aggressively is supportive, but insider selling is a notable near-term negative.
Event path is clear (earnings on 2026-02-18; acquisition expected to close in H1’26), but with no fresh news this week, there’s limited catalyst-driven urgency to buy at resistance.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0207) and expanding, supporting continued upside momentum.
Overbought/Stretched: RSI_6 at 74.672 suggests the stock is extended in the very near term (prone to pauses/pullbacks).
Levels: Pivot 64.496; immediate resistance at R1 64.645 then R2 64.737; support at S1 64.347 then S2 64.255.
Pattern-based forward bias: Model shows ~70% chance of -0.39% next day, +1.33% next week, +5.18% next month—near-term choppy, medium-term constructive.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment (OI): Put/Call OI ratio at 0.2 is bullish-leaning (more call interest than puts).
Activity (Volume): Essentially no options volume reported (call/put volume both 0), so current options tape provides weak real-time confirmation of sentiment.
Volatility: IV metrics show very low relative positioning (IV percentile/rank ~0), implying options are not pricing in large near-term moves.
Positioning note: Today’s open interest (5006) is elevated vs. the 30-day average (112.47), suggesting positioning exists even if today’s trading activity is quiet.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Acquisition by Sumitomo Aviation approved by shareholder vote; expected close in H1 2026 (deal-progress visibility can support price stability).
- Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-18 after hours (Street EPS est. 1.38).
- Strong institutional behavior: Hedge funds are net buyers with buying amount up 662.09% over the last quarter.
- Operating momentum (latest reported quarter): strong YoY EPS and net income growth (see financials).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Limited upside versus the latest major Street target: Barclays downgraded to Equal Weight with PT $65 (close to current price).
- Insider behavior: Insiders are selling, with selling amount up 100.59% over the last month.
- Technical near-term: RSI_6 ~74.7 signals a stretched condition near resistance (R1/R2), increasing odds of a pause/pullback.
- No news in the past week: fewer immediate event-driven catalysts to justify buying right at resistance.
- Influential/politician flows: No recent congress trading data available (no supportive visibility from that channel).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $725.393M, +5.10% YoY (steady top-line expansion).
Net income: $135.374M, +47.71% YoY (meaningful profitability improvement).
EPS: $1.21, +47.56% YoY (strong earnings growth trend).
Overall read: margins/profitability leverage is driving outsized EPS growth versus revenue growth, a constructive fundamental setup into the next earnings date.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent change: On 2026-01-06, Barclays downgraded AL to Equal Weight from Overweight and lowered PT to $65 (from $68), largely tied to the acquisition timeline/closure expectations.
Wall Street pros: Deal approval and expected closing adds visibility; fundamentals show strong YoY earnings growth.
Wall Street cons: Downgrade and reduced price target imply limited incremental upside from current levels; near-term return potential looks constrained if the stock is already pricing the deal outcome.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AL is 65 USD with a low forecast of 65 USD and a high forecast of 65 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 64.530

Low

Averages

High

Current: 64.530

Low

Averages

High

Barclays

Overweight -> Equal Weight

downgrade

$68 -> $65

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$68 -> $65

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

downgrade

Overweight -> Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays downgraded Air Lease to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $65, down from $68. The company's acquisition by Sumitomo Aviation has been approved via shareholder vote and is expected to close in the first half of 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Deutsche Bank

Buy

Hold

downgrade

$66 -> $65

2025-09-03

Reason

Deutsche Bank

Price Target

$66 -> $65

2025-09-03

downgrade

Buy

Hold

Reason

Deutsche Bank downgraded Air Lease to Hold from Buy with a price target of $65, down from $66, after the company agreed to be acquired by a new Dublin-based holding company for $65 per share in cash.

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AL Should I Buy

AL Should I Buy

Should You Buy Air Lease Corp (AL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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