Should I Buy AJG? AJG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

241.580

1 Day change

-0.48%

52 Week Range

351.230

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: trend is bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and momentum is still negative.
Sentiment from “smart money” is a headwind: hedge funds and insiders are selling aggressively, and Congress activity shows only sales.
Fundamentals show strong top-line growth but sharp profitability deterioration in the latest quarter, which reduces near-term upside confidence.
Unless you’re specifically trading a short-term bounce off support, risk/reward favors staying out (or reducing) rather than buying now.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5, implying the stock is in a downside/weak regime.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.979 (below zero) and only “negatively contracting” → downside momentum is easing, but not reversed.
RSI(6) ~45.7 (neutral) → no oversold signal to justify an impatient buy.
Levels: Pivot ~247.47 with price ~247.73 (sitting on/near pivot). Key support S1 ~239.39 (next downside area). Upside resistance R1 ~255.54.
Pattern-based forward odds: muted edge (approx. flat-to-slightly down next week/month), not supportive of an immediate long.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning vs flow: OI put/call 0.4 is relatively bullish (more call OI), but today’s put/call volume 2.2 is bearish (puts dominating flow).
Volatility: IV 30d ~27.5 vs HV ~31.5 (options not “cheap” vs realized), with IV percentile ~80 → options pricing reflects elevated demand for protection/speculation.
Activity: Today’s volume vs 30D avg ~24.8x (large spike) → heightened near-term uncertainty/positioning; combined with put-heavy flow tilts sentiment negative near term.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Event-driven: multiple tuck-in acquisitions (3D Advisors; Hunt Benefits; Tenaglia; Hunt Financial Group) support the roll-up growth model and distribution expansion.
- Sector backdrop (per some commentary): brokers can still show resilience even as the pricing cycle softens; potential for upside to consensus EPS if execution stays strong.
- Price is near a key pivot level (~247.47), which can occasionally produce short bounces if buyers defend it.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- “Smart money” pressure: hedge funds selling sharply QoQ; insiders selling sharply MoM.
- Congress trading (last 90 days): 4 trades, 0 buys and 4 sells → influential-flow sentiment is cautious/negative.
- Profitability deterioration in latest quarter (net income/EPS down sharply YoY) raises concern that acquisition-driven revenue is not translating into near-term earnings power.
- Street narrative: softening P&C cycle and tougher competition → organic growth and margin headwinds; several targets cut and at least one notable downgrade.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: 3.628B, +33.58% YoY (strong top-line growth, likely acquisition-assisted).
Net income: 151M, -41.54% YoY (material decline).
EPS: 0.58, -48.21% YoY (earnings compression).
Gross margin: 29.13%, -23.06% YoY (margin pressure consistent with a less favorable operating mix/competition/integration costs).
Takeaway: growth quality is the issue—revenue strength isn’t converting into profits right now.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating trend: broad shift to caution/neutral—multiple Hold/Neutral/Market Perform reiterations and downgrades (e.g., Cantor downgrade to Neutral; Piper downgrade to Neutral).
Price targets: mostly lowered/trimmed across the Street (valuation compression + softer cycle concerns). Targets cluster roughly in the high-240s to high-290s, with several cuts near the current price.
Wall Street “pros”: resilient broker model, acquisition engine, potential upside to EPS if integration/margins improve.
Wall Street “cons”: softening P&C cycle, organic growth headwinds, competition, and margin pressure (including acquisition-related dilution until synergies materialize).

12 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AJG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AJG is 288.18 USD with a low forecast of 247 USD and a high forecast of 334 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

6 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 242.750

Low

247

Averages

288.18

High

334

Current: 242.750

Low

247

Averages

288.18

High

334

UBS

Neutral

maintain

$285 -> $283

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$285 -> $283

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

maintain

Neutral

Reason

UBS lowered the firm's price target on Arthur J. Gallagher to $283 from $285 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Insurance brokers are well positioned for 2026, with organic revenue growth averaging 4.4% and EBITDA margins improving year over year despite property rate pressures, the analyst tells investors in a research note. With growth expectations reset and valuations reflecting a softer market, there is upside to consensus EPS and potential for multiple expansion, the firm says.

Citi

Neutral

maintain

$277 -> $280

2026-02-02

Reason

Citi

Price Target

$277 -> $280

2026-02-02

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Citi raised the firm's price target on Arthur J. Gallagher to $280 from $277 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

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AJG Should I Buy

AJG Should I Buy

Should You Buy Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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