Should I Buy AIRO? AIRO 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy AIRO Group Holdings Inc (AIRO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

9.640

1 Day change

13.68%

52 Week Range

39.070

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: trend is still decisively bearish and momentum is worsening.
Oversold conditions (RSI~~26) + price near first support (~~9.97) can produce a short bounce, but there is no proprietary “strong buy” signal to justify chasing it.
Options positioning is mildly bullish (put/call < 1), yet fundamentals (Q3 collapse) keep risk skewed to further downside into the next earnings (2026-02-13).

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 (downtrend intact).
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.336 and negatively expanding → downside momentum is strengthening, not stabilizing.
RSI: RSI_6 = 26.23 (oversold/washed out). This can support a reflex rally, but it’s not a trend-reversal confirmation by itself.
Levels: Support S1 ~9.97 then S2 ~9.11; resistance/pivot ~11.37 then R1 ~12.77.
Pattern-based forward odds: next day ~30% chance of -0.92%; next week +1.8%; next month -5.7% (skew still bearish).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put-call ratios below 1.0 suggest a modestly bullish/options-risk-on tilt (more calls than puts).
Volatility: IV30 ~81.4 vs HV ~89.8 (IV slightly below realized); IV percentile 26.5 / IV rank 7.6 → options are not priced at “panic highs.”
Activity: Today’s option volume (637) is below the 30D average (77.4%), but open interest is elevated vs average (114.9%) → positioning exists, but today’s flow wasn’t aggressive.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

can create a near-term bounce if sellers exhaust.
on 2026-02-13 pre-market could reset expectations if delivery timing improves.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Clear downtrend with weakening momentum (bearish MAs + expanding negative MACD).
- No supportive news flow in the past week to change the narrative.
- Next-month pattern bias points to further weakness (-5.7% expectation).
- Event risk: next earnings could disappoint again given recent delivery delays and lowered outlook commentary from analysts.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 6.28M, down -73.47% YoY (major contraction).
Net income: -7.96M, down -73.75% YoY (losses remain heavy).
EPS: -0.28, down -77.05% YoY.
Gross margin: 44.4%, down -35.41% YoY → profitability pressure alongside revenue decline.
Overall: financial trend is deteriorating, which makes buying into a falling technical trend unattractive right now.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Ratings remain positive (Buy/Outperform/Overweight), but price targets have been repeatedly cut, reflecting reduced confidence in near-term execution.
Recent changes:
- 2026-01-05 Mizuho: PT cut to $20 (from $25), maintained Outperform.
- 2025-11-24 BTIG: PT cut to $19 (from $26), maintained Buy (delivery delays shifted ~$20M sales).
- 2025-11-21 Cantor: PT cut to $20 (from $35), maintained Overweight; noted “show me” period.
- 2025-11-17 Mizuho: PT cut to $25 (from $31), maintained Outperform.
Wall Street pros: long-term strategic value as a drone supplier; expectations arguably reset after a weak Q3.
Wall Street cons: execution risk and delivery timing issues are the core problem, and target cuts show the Street is de-risking the near-term story.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds/insiders shown as neutral with no significant recent trend.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AIRO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AIRO is 19.67 USD with a low forecast of 19 USD and a high forecast of 20 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 8.480

Low

Averages

19.67

High

Current: 8.480

Low

Averages

19.67

High

Mizuho

Brett Linzey

Outperform

downgrade

$25 -> $20

AI Analysis

2026-01-05

Reason

Mizuho

Brett Linzey

Price Target

$25 -> $20

AI Analysis

2026-01-05

downgrade

Outperform

Reason

Mizuho analyst Brett Linzey lowered the firm's price target on Airo Group to $20 from $25 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and price targets in the electrical equipment and multi-industry group as part of its 2026 outlook. It sees "uneven terrain ahead" for the sector but says the "tariff fog" is clearing.

BTIG

Andre Madrid

Buy

downgrade

$26 -> $19

2025-11-24

Reason

BTIG

Andre Madrid

Price Target

$26 -> $19

2025-11-24

downgrade

Buy

Reason

BTIG analyst Andre Madrid lowered the firm's price target on Airo Group to $19 from $26 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q3 results. Last-minute customer demands resulted in expanded work scope, delaying deliveries and shifting about $20M in Drones sales out of Q3, and the firm is lowering its 2025 sales outlook to $101M from $111M to reflect any potential further delays, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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AIRO Should I Buy

AIRO Should I Buy

Should You Buy AIRO Group Holdings Inc (AIRO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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