Should I Buy AIN? AIN 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Albany International Corp (AIN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

58.780

1 Day change

3.32%

52 Week Range

83.650

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: trend and forward probability skew are bearish, and the next major catalyst is earnings (2026-02-25) with elevated uncertainty.
Price is below key pivot (56.68) with bearish moving-average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and a weakening MACD, suggesting downside pressure can persist.
Options positioning is defensive/bearish (heavy put open interest) and implied volatility is extremely elevated, reflecting market concern rather than confident dip-buying.
Wall Street stance is largely Neutral/Hold and key price targets (47–50 from JPM/Truist) sit below the current price, limiting near-term upside narrative.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating the broader downtrend remains intact.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.365 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum strengthening.
RSI: RSI_6 at 47.35 (neutral) → no oversold bounce signal; downside can continue without being “too stretched.”
Levels: Pivot 56.68 overhead; near support S1 55.12 then S2 54.16. Resistance R1 58.24 then R2 59.20.
Pattern-based forward read: Similar-pattern stats imply ~-0.48% next day, ~-3.29% next week, ~-15.75% next month (bearish bias).

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/positioning: Open interest put/call ratio 3.61 (puts dominate) → defensive/bearish positioning.
Activity: Very low volume (todays volume 2; put volume 0, call volume 2) → positioning signal comes more from OI than fresh trading.
Volatility: IV 30d 92.6 with IV percentile 96.8 (very high) vs historical volatility 51.35 → options priced for unusually large moves; market is demanding a high risk premium.
Interpretation: Skewed OI + very high IV generally aligns with caution/hedging rather than strong bullish conviction.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Strategic actions: Ongoing strategic review around Albany Engineered Composites (if clarity/value-unlock emerges, it could re-rate the stock).
- Event catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-25 (after hours) could provide a reset point if guidance/segment outlook improves.
- Technical: If price holds 55.12/54.16 support and reclaims 56.68 pivot, a short-term rebound toward 58.24 is possible.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical downside risk: Bearish MA stack + weakening MACD increases probability of support breaks (55.12 then 54.16).
- Options/volatility: Extremely high IV + heavy put OI suggests market is bracing for negative outcomes rather than upside.
- Fundamentals: Recent quarter showed sharp deterioration (revenue down, large net loss, negative gross margin), which can weigh on multiple and sentiment.
- Analyst posture: Predominantly Neutral/Hold; key targets from major shops remain below spot, implying limited confidence in near-term upside.
- Political/influencer flows: No recent congress trading data to suggest an external “smart money” catalyst.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $261.434M, down -12.38% YoY → clear top-line contraction.
Profitability: Net income -$97.76M (down -642.24% YoY) and EPS -3.37 (down -691.23% YoY) → severe earnings deterioration.
Margins: Gross margin -19.1% (down -163.06% YoY) → indicates heavy cost pressure and/or one-time charges impairing profitability.
Takeaway: Growth and margin trends are moving the wrong direction into the next earnings cycle, which is not supportive of an impatient “buy now” decision.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating trend: Overall Neutral/Hold bias.
Price target changes:
- 2026-01-16 JPMorgan: Neutral; PT raised to $47 (from $45) — still well below current $56.21.
- 2025-11-08 Truist: Hold; PT cut to $50 (from $55) after a miss and pulled guidance.
- 2025-11-07 Baird: Neutral; PT cut to $64 (from $79) after Q3.
Wall Street pros view (bull case): Potential strategic review/value-unlock in Engineered Composites; any stabilization in Machine Clothing margins could improve outlook.
Wall Street cons view (bear case): Recent miss, guidance uncertainty, end-market headwinds (notably Asia), and lowered targets signal muted confidence near term.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AIN stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AIN is 54.75 USD with a low forecast of 45 USD and a high forecast of 64 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

3 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 56.890

Low

Averages

54.75

High

Current: 56.890

Low

Averages

54.75

High

JPMorgan

Neutral

maintain

$45 -> $47

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$45 -> $47

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

maintain

Neutral

Reason

JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Albany International to $47 from $45 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the electrical equipment and multi-industry group as part of its Q4 earnings preview. JPMorgan is more positive on "growth related names into and out of the quarter."

Truist

Michael Ciarmoli

Hold

downgrade

$55 -> $50

2025-11-08

Reason

Truist

Michael Ciarmoli

Price Target

$55 -> $50

2025-11-08

downgrade

Hold

Reason

Truist analyst Michael Ciarmoli lowered the firm's price target on Albany International to $50 from $55 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The company's quarterly results missed all around while guidance was pulled due to uncertainty around the strategic review of the Albany Engineered Composites segment structures business and MC - Machine Clothing - faced headwinds from Asian end-markets as the segment continues work to return margins to historical levels through internal efficiency initiatives, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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AIN Should I Buy

AIN Should I Buy

Should You Buy Albany International Corp (AIN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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