Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is in a clear downtrend and just broke below near-term support (~84.33), increasing odds of further downside/whipsaw.
Fundamentals are strong (Q3 FY2026 growth and margin resilience), but the tape is still bearish; better odds come after stabilization/reclaiming 84–85 and improving momentum.
Options flow skews defensive near-term (put volume dominates), suggesting traders are still hedging/positioning for weakness despite decent put/call open-interest balance.
No supportive Intellectia signals today (no AI Stock Picker / no SwingMax), so there’s no tactical “must-buy-now” trigger.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), consistent with sustained downside momentum.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-2.445) but contracting, which can precede a bounce; however, it is still below zero (bearish regime).
RSI: RSI_6 at 23.95 indicates oversold conditions (bounce potential), but oversold can persist in strong downtrends.
Key levels: Price 83.83 is slightly below S1 (84.331). Next support is S2 (76.578). Upside resistance levels are Pivot 96.88, then R1 109.428.
Pattern-based forward view (provided): ~60% chance of slight weakness next day/week, with modestly positive 1-month expectancy (+1.49%).
Positioning: Open-interest put/call at 0.83 is not bearish (leans slightly call-heavy), but today’s volume put/call at 4.0 is sharply bearish (more puts traded than calls).
Activity/strength: Very low absolute volume (5 contracts) but elevated vs 30-day average (6.1x), so sentiment skew matters despite small size.
Volatility: 30D IV ~45.73 vs historical vol ~69.78 suggests options are relatively cheaper than realized volatility; IV percentile ~52.8 is mid-range (not extreme).
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
2
Positive Catalysts
Strong latest quarter (2026/Q3): Revenue +15.57% YoY; EPS +150% YoY; Net Income +158% YoY; Gross margin ~59.48% (+0.30 YoY) supports a quality software/services mix.
Analyst support exists: Oppenheimer reiterates Outperform with a raised PT ($140), highlighting a visible path to reacceleration and longer-term earnings power.
No notable negative hedge fund/insider trend flags in the provided data (both described as Neutral).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
with bearish MA structure increases probability of a continuation move toward ~76.
Profitability: Net income $9.90M, +158.41% YoY; EPS $0.35, +150% YoY (strong operating leverage).
Margins: Gross margin 59.48%, +0.30 YoY (stable-to-improving efficiency/quality of revenue).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating/target trend: Oppenheimer raised PT to $140 from $130 (maintains Outperform), signaling increased confidence in multi-year growth/earnings trajectory.
Counterbalance: BTIG initiated/assumed coverage at Neutral, acknowledging strong execution and subscription momentum but not endorsing an aggressive buy at current levels.
Wall Street pros: visible subscription reacceleration narrative, vertical/system-of-record moat, potential premium multiple if execution continues.
Wall Street cons: Neutral initiation suggests valuation/timing or near-term visibility concerns; current price action implies the market is not rewarding the story right now.
Wall Street analysts forecast AGYS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGYS is 142 USD with a low forecast of 135 USD and a high forecast of 155 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AGYS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGYS is 142 USD with a low forecast of 135 USD and a high forecast of 155 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 84.080
Low
135
Averages
142
High
155
Current: 84.080
Low
135
Averages
142
High
155
BTIG
Neutral
initiated
AI Analysis
2025-12-16
Reason
BTIG
Price Target
AI Analysis
2025-12-16
initiated
Neutral
Reason
BTIG initiated coverage of Agilysys with a Neutral rating.
BTIG
Neutral
initiated
2025-12-16
Reason
BTIG
Price Target
2025-12-16
initiated
Neutral
Reason
BTIG assumed coverage of Agilysys with a Neutral rating. The company has been firing on all cylinders with subscription revenue from property management system and point-of-sale segments accelerating to 55% and 18%, respectively, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Agilysys momentum has been driven by improved execution and a re-engineered PMS platform that includes its add-on solutions for greater product bundling, the firm added.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for AGYS
