Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: momentum is weakening (bearish MACD expansion) and price is below the key pivot (11.692), suggesting limited immediate upside.
Options positioning is mildly bullish (put/call < 1), but not strong enough to override the weakening technicals.
Insider activity is a major red flag: insiders are selling aggressively (+4402% MoM), which typically caps near-term upside.
Wall Street is constructive on the rate-cut tailwind and dividend support, but multiple downgrades cite valuation/book-value premium—risk/reward looks more balanced than earlier.
Trend/structure: Moving averages remain bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating the broader trend is still up.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0805) and negatively expanding → downside momentum is increasing short-term.
RSI: RSI_6 = 44.64 (neutral-to-soft), consistent with fading buying pressure rather than a strong dip-buy setup.
Key levels: Current ~11.545 is below Pivot 11.692 (near-term bearish tilt). Support S1=11.295 then S2=11.049; resistance R1=12.089 then R2=12.335.
Pattern-based odds: Model suggests modest upside next day/week (+0.86% / +1.93%) but slightly negative over next month (-0.38%), aligning with “short bounce, weaker follow-through.”
Volatility: IV30 ≈ 23.02 vs historical vol 14.63 → options are pricing elevated uncertainty; IV percentile 72.8 (rich vs recent history).
Activity: Today’s option volume (9,497) is only ~29.7% of 30-day average → sentiment signal is present but not strongly conviction-backed by flow.
Positioning depth: Total OI ~755,799 with calls 393,010 vs puts 362,789 → balanced-to-bullish skew, not extreme.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
suggest Street still sees room above the current ~$11.55 price.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Insider selling: “Insiders are Selling” with a sharp increase (+4402% MoM) is a meaningful near-term bearish signal.
Technical momentum deterioration: Bearish/expanding MACD while under pivot increases odds of a pullback toward 11.30/11.05 supports.
Valuation/book value concern: Multiple downgrades point to the shares trading at a premium to estimated book value, implying less attractive risk/reward after the rebound.
Dividend risk narrative in news: High yield (~12%) is repeatedly described as coming with meaningful volatility/risk, which can pressure the stock if rates or spreads move against it.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4 showed very strong YoY growth: Revenue $1.733B (+93.63%), Net Income $908M (+955.81%), EPS $0.83 (+730%).
Profitability: Gross margin improved to 57.41 (+233.59% YoY), consistent with a much better operating/market environment for the portfolio in that quarter.
Read-through: The quarter supports the “recovery/tailwind” thesis, but the stock can still stall if the market believes the best spread-tightening phase is already priced in.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets were broadly raised into late Jan (RBC $13; Wells $12; JPM $12; BofA $11.50; Barclays $10), reflecting improved book value/outlook as MBS spreads tightened.
But sentiment is less one-way: Several firms downgraded to more neutral stances (Keefe Bruyette to Market Perform; JonesResearch to Hold; BTIG to Neutral), mainly on valuation/premium-to-book and risk/reward being “more balanced” after the rebound.
Wall Street pros: Rate-cut tailwind, supportive portfolio returns/dividend outlook, improved book value dynamics.
Wall Street cons: Less upside after spread tightening, valuation premium vs book, and dividend/rate-volatility sensitivity.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available; no politician activity provided in the dataset.
Wall Street analysts forecast AGNC stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGNC is 10.44 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 11 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AGNC stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGNC is 10.44 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 11 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 11.400
Low
10
Averages
10.44
High
11
Current: 11.400
Low
10
Averages
10.44
High
11
RBC Capital
Kenneth Lee
Outperform
maintain
$11 -> $13
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
Reason
RBC Capital
Kenneth Lee
Price Target
$11 -> $13
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
maintain
Outperform
Reason
RBC Capital analyst Kenneth Lee raised the firm's price target on AGNC Investment to $13 from $11 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company reported strong economic returns of 11.6% in Q4 as MBS spreads tightened, the analyst tells investors in a research note. AGNC portfolio returns are still supportive of common dividends, though expected returns are slightly lower than the cost of capital, RBC added.
Wells Fargo
Overweight
maintain
$10 -> $12
2026-01-28
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$10 -> $12
2026-01-28
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on AGNC Investment to $12 from $10 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported Q4 core EPS of 35c, below its 38c estimate and consensus at 37c. On the call, AGNC noted that it expects the October and December rate cuts to provide a tailwind to net spread and dollar roll income. The outlook for additional Fed rate cuts in 2026 is constructive for agency MBS REIT stocks and BV, Wells argues.
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