Should I Buy AGL? AGL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy agilon health inc (AGL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

0.650

1 Day change

2.69%

52 Week Range

6.080

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: price action is in a strong downtrend (bearish MAs + weakening MACD) and the current newsflow is overwhelmingly negative (multiple class-action/law-firm investigations), which typically caps near-term upside.
Options sentiment is conflicted but skewed bearish in traded volume (put buying dominates today), and implied volatility is extremely elevated—suggesting the market is pricing continued turbulence rather than a clean rebound.
With no Intellectia buy signals (AI Stock Picker/SwingMax both absent) and fundamentals still deteriorating (Q3 2025 revenue down, losses deepening), the risk/reward for an impatient entry is unattractive.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), consistent with a sustained downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.0282 and negatively expanding → downside momentum is strengthening rather than stabilizing.
RSI: RSI(6) at 25.04 indicates short-term oversold conditions, but oversold can persist in a breakdown; it is not a reliable buy signal by itself here.
Levels: Pivot 0.892 is well above price (0.779), highlighting how far price has slipped. Nearby support sits at S1 ~0.792 (already under it) and S2 ~0.73; resistance levels at ~0.992 and ~1.053 look distant.
Pattern-based stat: Similar-candlestick analogs imply only modest expected moves (next week +1.54% probability-weighted), not a strong bounce profile.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest positioning: Put/Call OI ratio 0.03 (call OI far greater than put OI), which can look “bullish” structurally, but can also reflect legacy positioning rather than today’s conviction.
Flow today: Put/Call volume ratio 3.06 (puts traded heavily vs calls) → near-term sentiment/hedging pressure is bearish.
Volatility: 30D IV ~430% with IV percentile 100 and IV rank ~101.79 → options market is pricing extreme uncertainty; this aligns with event-driven risk (lawsuits/credibility overhang) rather than a calm reversal setup.
Activity spike: Today’s volume vs 30D avg ~30.64x suggests unusual attention and stress in the name.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

~
can spark short, tradable rebounds—though this is countertrend.
on 2026-03-02 after hours could reset expectations if guidance/medical cost trends improve.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

fails, there is little in the provided levels to suggest a nearby technical floor.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $1.435B, down ~1.08% YoY → weak/negative growth.
Profitability: Net income -$110.2M, down ~6.30% YoY; EPS -0.27, down ~6.90% YoY → losses widening (negative trend).
Margins: “Gross margin” reported at -4.29 (still negative) though slightly improved YoY (+1.66%) → indicates continued cost/medical expense pressure and an impaired earnings profile.
Overall: Financial trend does not yet show a clear operational inflection that would justify chasing a buy immediately.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent tone: Cautious to neutral.
Bernstein (2025-12-04): Kept Market Perform and cut PT to $0.88 from $1.40, citing high prior-period medical costs and higher costs for exited markets—still constructive on broader sector turnaround but not calling for AGL outperformance.
Jefferies (2025-12-18): Highlighted CMS LEAD model as a positive for VBC providers; Jefferies maintained a Hold stance on Agilon (while rating peers more positively).
Data quality note: An entry referencing “RBC Capital upgraded AGL Energy” appears unrelated to agilon health (ticker mismatch), so it should not be treated as supportive coverage for this stock.
Wall Street pros/cons: Pros—potential policy/ACO tailwinds and any sector turnaround could help. Cons—recent cost issues, model uncertainty, and now heavy legal overhang; net view remains cautious rather than bullish.

10 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AGL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGL is 0.98 USD with a low forecast of 0.5 USD and a high forecast of 1.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

7 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

Current: 0.631

Low

0.5

Averages

0.98

High

1.5

Current: 0.631

Low

0.5

Averages

0.98

High

1.5

Jefferies

Buy

maintain

AI Analysis

2025-12-18

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

AI Analysis

2025-12-18

maintain

Buy

Reason

Jefferies notes that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services announced the launch of a new Accountable Care Organization model: the Long-term Enhanced ACO Design, or LEAD, model. Broadly, the firm views this as a "clear positive" for VBC providers participating in ACO programs like Astrana Health (ASTH), Agilon Health (AGL) and Privia Health (PRVA). The firm has Buy ratings on Astrana and Privia and a Hold rating on Agilon.

Bernstein

Market Perform

downgrade

2025-12-04

Reason

Bernstein

Price Target

2025-12-04

downgrade

Market Perform

Reason

Bernstein lowered the firm's price target on Agilon Health to 88c from $1.40 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm updated its Agilon model forward to reflect Q3 results, lowering its price target due to high prior period medical costs and increased costs for exited markets. The firm added that it remains positive on the sector turnaround and its impacts on Agilon.

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AGL Should I Buy

AGL Should I Buy

Should You Buy agilon health inc (AGL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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