Should I Buy AGIO? AGIO 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc (AGIO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

26.530

1 Day change

-0.15%

52 Week Range

46.000

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry. The chart setup is still bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) and near-term pattern stats skew negative (next week/month bias lower).
Fundamentals/catalysts are improving (FDA approval of Aqvesme; multiple price-target raises; hedge funds buying), but the market is not yet rewarding it with a confirmed uptrend.
Tactical plan (if you must act now): only becomes a higher-conviction buy on a clean reclaim/hold above ~29.50 (R1) and follow-through toward ~30.33 (R2); otherwise the better risk/reward is to wait.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: Moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating the prevailing trend is still down.
MACD: Histogram is positive (0.0764) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is weakening rather than accelerating.
RSI (6): 48.8 (neutral), no oversold bounce signal.
Key levels: Pivot ~28.16 (price 28.31 is only slightly above). Resistance at 29.50 (R1) then 30.33 (R2); supports at 26.82 (S1) then 25.99 (S2).
Near-term pattern odds (provided): bias modestly negative over 1W (-3.14%) and 1M (-4.25%), which supports waiting for a breakout before buying.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: OI put/call 0.69 and volume put/call 0.07 = notably call-skewed activity (bullish/speculative tone).
Volatility: 30D IV 253% vs HV 43.6%, with IV percentile 100 / IV rank ~102 → options are priced for extreme moves; sentiment is “event-like.”
Flow intensity: Today’s volume is ~228% of 30D average (per dataset), indicating elevated interest.
Interpretation: Options market is leaning bullish, but the very high IV suggests much of the expected upside may already be priced into options (and can align with choppy price action).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- FDA approval of Aqvesme (mitapivat) for thalassemia (broad label TD + NTD) supports a new commercial launch and expands the franchise narrative.
- Analyst price targets moved up materially post-approval, reinforcing institutional confidence in the launch/peak-sales potential.
- Hedge funds buying: reported buying amount up ~297.6% QoQ, supportive of demand.
- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-18 (pre-market) could reset expectations if early launch commentary is strong.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technicals still bearish (downtrend via moving averages), reducing the probability that “buy now” immediately works.
- REMS + black box / liver monitoring noted by analysts may slow early uptake (Citi expects gradual early launch).
- No supportive news flow in the last week (no fresh catalyst to force a breakout immediately).
- Market tape: S&P 500 down -0.85% in the session—risk-off conditions can cap biotech rallies.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $12.88M, +43.69% YoY (growth improving).
Profitability: Net income - $103.43M (worsened YoY), EPS -1.78 (worsened YoY) → still heavy loss-making phase.
Margins: Gross margin 86.96%, down ~4.72% YoY (still high, but trending lower).
Overall read: Top-line is growing, but losses widened—market will likely need clearer evidence of launch traction to sustain a durable uptrend.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Mostly bullish actions (multiple Buy/Outperform reiterations and price target raises) following Aqvesme FDA approval.
Key updates:
- Leerink PT $40 (Outperform);
- Citi Buy, PT $38 (expects gradual early launch due to REMS);
- Truist Buy, PT $38;
- BofA Buy, PT $35;
- H.C. Wainwright Buy, PT $62 (most bullish);
- JPMorgan Neutral, PT $25 (notably cautious/outlier vs others).
Wall Street pros: Approval de-risks the story; pricing set at ~$425k WAC; broad label expands market opportunity.
Wall Street cons: Early launch may be slower (monitoring burden), and not all firms see upside at current levels (JPM Neutral with lower PT).

9 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AGIO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGIO is 36.38 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 62 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 26.570

Low

Averages

36.38

High

Current: 26.570

Low

Averages

36.38

High

JPMorgan

Neutral

maintain

$20 -> $25

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$20 -> $25

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

maintain

Neutral

Reason

JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Agios Pharmaceuticals to $25 from $20 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the approval of Aqvesme.

BofA

Buy

maintain

$34 -> $35

2026-01-06

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$34 -> $35

2026-01-06

maintain

Buy

Reason

BofA raised the firm's price target on Agios Pharmaceuticals to $35 from $34 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for U.S Biopharmaceuticals under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. Over the past few months, several key items "have fallen into place," including positive data catalysts being rewarded; large-cap biopharma spending cash on M&A and in-licensing; growing backlog of companies on the private side; improving access to capital; and limited impact from drug price regulation, BofA says. The firm believes biotech is back, but the biggest concern is whether this will last.

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AGIO Should I Buy

AGIO Should I Buy

Should You Buy Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc (AGIO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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