Should I Buy AGCO? AGCO 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy AGCO Corp (AGCO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

132.570

1 Day change

6.62%

52 Week Range

132.890

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now (for an impatient buyer). Price is in a short-term uptrend, but option flow is aggressively put-skewed and earnings are 2026-02-05 pre-market, creating near-term downside/event risk.
Key levels: holding above pivot/support ~112.6 is constructive; a clean break below raises risk toward 108.6. Upside is capped near 116.6–119.0 unless earnings re-rate the stock.
Positioning/sentiment mix: hedge funds are accumulating (supportive), but Wall Street targets have been cut and options volume is signaling caution into the event.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, consistent with an intermediate uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.154 and expanding → upside momentum is still present.
Overbought risk: RSI_6 ~72 (near/at overbought) → higher chance of a pullback/chop, especially ahead of earnings.
Support/Resistance: Pivot 112.584 (near-term line in the sand). Resistance at 116.578 (R1) then 119.045 (R2); supports 108.59 (S1) then 106.123 (S2).
Tape: Regular session closed ~114.21 vs prior 116.54, with -2% post-market → sellers showed up into the close/after-hours.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Open interest P/C 0.82 is mildly call-leaning, but put volume dominates (P/C volume 7.13) → strong near-term hedging/bearish trading bias.
Volatility/pricing: IV30 36.54 vs HV 26.93 and IV percentile ~70 → options are pricing elevated uncertainty (consistent with imminent earnings).
Activity: Today’s volume 252 vs 30D avg (reported) ~504% → unusually high activity, likely earnings positioning.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Product/innovation visibility: showcasing Fendt e100 Vario electric tractor and new tech solutions at World Ag Expo (potential demand/brand momentum narrative).
- Hedge funds buying: reported buying up 4280% QoQ (often supportive for near-term floor).
- Pattern-based odds: similar-pattern model implies a positive bias over 1 week (+6.79%) and 1 month (+6.96%) (not a guarantee, but supportive backdrop).
- Margins improving: latest quarter showed meaningful profitability improvement (see financials).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst (high event risk): QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-05 pre-market with EPS est 1.85; options are already signaling caution.
- Options volume is bearish/defensive: heavy put demand can pressure shares into/through earnings.
- Analyst downgrades/target cuts: notable downgrade to Underweight with a much lower target (see analyst section), keeping sentiment constrained.
- Macro/policy concerns: tariffs cited as a margin/strategy headwind by Barclays; post-market weakness (-2%) also signals fragile near-term sentiment.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $2.476B, -4.73% YoY → top-line contraction continues.
Profitability: Net income $305.7M, +919% YoY; EPS 4.09, +922.5% YoY → sharp rebound likely helped by margin mix/comp effects.
Margins: Gross margin 25.18%, +10.15% YoY → strong operational improvement, a key positive trend even with lower revenue.
Growth read-through: fundamentals look margin-led rather than demand-led; that makes the stock more sensitive to any earnings guidance on volumes/pricing.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: overall more cautious—multiple firms cut price targets, and Barclays issued a downgrade.
Latest calls:
- UBS (2026-01-05): Neutral, PT $115 (cut from $119).
- Barclays (2025-12-19): Downgrade to Underweight, PT $93 (cut from $116), citing tariff/margin and Fendt share concerns.
- JPMorgan (2025-11-26): Overweight, PT $127 (cut from $136), relatively constructive vs peers.
- Wells Fargo (2025-11-13): Equal Weight, PT $114.
Wall Street pros: improving margins, aftermarket/precision ag strategy, and comparatively resilient earnings outlook vs some peers.
Wall Street cons: tariff risk to margins, questions on long-term market share (Fendt), and a generally trimmed target landscape.

12 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AGCO stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGCO is 112.7 USD with a low forecast of 93 USD and a high forecast of 125 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

6 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

Current: 124.340

Low

Averages

112.7

High

125

Current: 124.340

Low

Averages

112.7

High

125

JPMorgan

NULL -> Overweight

maintain

$123 -> $138

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$123 -> $138

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

maintain

NULL -> Overweight

Reason

JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Agco to $138 from $123 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the Q4 report.

BMO Capital

Market Perform

maintain

$110 -> $115

2026-02-06

New

Reason

BMO Capital

Price Target

$110 -> $115

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Market Perform

Reason

BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on Agco to $115 from $110 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares after its Q4 earnings beat. With North America large ag continuing as the problematic equipment market, AGCO's relatively smaller exposure to this market is attractive versus peers, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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AGCO Should I Buy

AGCO Should I Buy

Should You Buy AGCO Corp (AGCO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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