Buy now for a catalyst-driven momentum move: the Gatos Silver acquisition materially boosts Mexico silver exposure and has already triggered strong upside price action.
Options positioning (call-heavy) and hedge-fund accumulation support bullish near-term sentiment.
Risk is a short-term pullback (MACD weakening) after the sharp +8% session, but given an impatient profile, the setup still favors entering now with upside toward the $23.86 pivot and $26.92 resistance.
Technical Analysis
Price closed at 22.22 (+8.04% regular session) with continued bullish moving-average structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the broader trend is up.
MACD histogram is negative (-0.374) and negatively expanding, indicating momentum has weakened and a near-term dip/consolidation is possible.
RSI(6) at 45.1 is neutral (no immediate overbought/oversold), leaving room for continuation if buyers follow through.
Key levels: Support S1 ~20.79 (then S2 ~18.90). Resistance pivot ~23.86; next resistance R1 ~26.92 (then R2 ~28.81). A push above ~23.86 would strengthen the breakout case.
Pattern-based forward stats provided: ~50% chance of -2.42% next day, but positive bias over next week (+4.05%) and next month (+3.57%).
Sentiment skew is bullish: put/call OI ratio 0.5 and put/call volume ratio 0.23 indicate calls are dominating.
Implied volatility is elevated (30D IV 73.25) with IV percentile 86 (options are expensive), consistent with strong event/catalyst expectations.
Total OI is very large (call OI 636,244 vs put OI 317,770), reinforcing a pro-upside positioning bias.
Volume today (25,443) appears below recent averages (vs 5D/10D avg ~38k/46k), suggesting positioning may be more “held” than actively chased today.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
Event-driven catalyst: acquisition of Gatos Silver for ~$970M, gaining ~70% stake in Los Gatos JV and increasing silver production scale in Mexico.
Macro tailwind: silver price strength (+~17% in January) and bullish commentary/forecasts amplifying investor attention to silver miners.
Flow/supportive positioning: hedge funds reported as aggressively buying (buying amount up ~7441.77% last quarter).
Upcoming catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-19 (pre-market) with street EPS est. 0.27—potential to extend momentum if numbers confirm leverage to higher metals prices.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
can create “buy the rumor / sell the news” behavior if results or guidance disappoint.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 285.06M, up +95.13% YoY (strong top-line acceleration).
Gross margin: 36.5, up +86.99% YoY (profitability at the gross level improved meaningfully).
Net income: 26.98M, down -201.45% YoY and EPS 0.05, down -155.56% YoY (bottom-line volatility persists despite higher revenue/margins).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst actions are decisively more bullish on price targets: Scotiabank lifted PT to $23 (from $12.50) with Sector Perform (2026-01-26) and H.C. Wainwright lifted PT to $24.50 (from $17.50) reiterating Buy (2026-01-16).
Wall Street “pros” view (pros): higher metals forecasts, sector tailwinds from economic/geopolitical uncertainty, and company-specific production/scale improvements (now reinforced by the Gatos deal).
Wall Street “cons”: at least one major firm remains non-committal (Sector Perform), implying valuation/execution risks and the need for clean earnings delivery to justify further multiple expansion.
Influential-figure trading: no recent Congress trading data available; insiders are neutral; hedge funds are notably accumulating.
Wall Street analysts forecast AG stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AG is 15.06 USD with a low forecast of 12.5 USD and a high forecast of 17.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AG stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AG is 15.06 USD with a low forecast of 12.5 USD and a high forecast of 17.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 20.250
Low
12.5
Averages
15.06
High
17.5
Current: 20.250
Low
12.5
Averages
15.06
High
17.5
Scotiabank
Sector Perform
upgrade
$23
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
Reason
Scotiabank
Price Target
$23
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
upgrade
Sector Perform
Reason
Scotiabank raised the firm's price target on First Majestic to $23 from $12.50 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for Gold & Precious Minerals stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. The firm has increased both gold and silver forecasts, supported by economic and geopolitical uncertainty as well as strong central bank buying.
H.C. Wainwright
NULL -> Buy
upgrade
2026-01-16
Reason
H.C. Wainwright
Price Target
2026-01-16
upgrade
NULL -> Buy
Reason
H.C. Wainwright raised the firm's price target on First Majestic to $24.50 from $17.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company released its year-end production results.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for AG
