Should I Buy AFL? AFL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Aflac Inc (AFL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

117.150

1 Day change

-0.27%

52 Week Range

119.320

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: the trend is bullish, but the stock is technically stretched (RSI elevated) and sitting near resistance ahead of earnings after-hours today.
Options positioning is strongly bullish (very low put/call ratios), which supports upside bias—but also suggests sentiment is crowded into calls, reducing near-term risk/reward for an impatient entry.
If you must act immediately, this is better as a hold/avoid chasing than a fresh buy; the cleaner entry is on a pullback toward ~109.7 (pivot) or ~107 (S1), or after earnings clarity.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.384 and expanding, confirming positive momentum.
Stretch/overbought risk: RSI(6) at 74.59 (elevated), which often precedes short-term cooling or consolidation even in strong uptrends.
Levels: Pivot 109.711 (first support zone); Resistance R1 112.359 (near current), then R2 113.994.
Pattern-based forward view: Similar-pattern stats imply modest upside near-term (next day/week) but weaker 1-month expectancy (-1.66%), aligning with “strong trend but near-term stretched.”
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put-call ratios are very low (OI PCR 0.45; Volume PCR 0.05) → strongly call-skewed, bullish positioning.
Activity: Today’s option volume 33,642 and ~1217% vs 30-day average suggests a surge in participation (event-driven positioning likely into earnings).
Volatility: IV 30d ~18.08 vs HV ~17.72 (slight premium), with IV percentile 27 and IV rank ~13.9 → IV is not especially elevated for the year, implying options aren’t “pricing in” extreme moves.
Net read: Options flow supports bullish bias, but the call crowding + earnings timing makes chasing less attractive at current resistance.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Positioning tailwind: Hedge funds are reported as buying heavily (large QoQ increase), which often supports the trend.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Near-term technical constraint: Elevated RSI and price sitting near R1 resistance makes risk/reward worse for immediate entry.
- Earnings risk tonight: Recent quarter showed extreme YoY declines in net income/EPS (even if partly non-recurring), increasing headline risk.
- Analyst caution: Several recent price-target cuts and multiple Hold/Equal Weight/Neutral stances suggest limited upside vs consensus targets.
- News/macro: Market sensitivity to jobs data and potential government shutdown risk could pressure financials broadly (risk-off tape).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: 4.74B, up +60.73% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income 1.639B, down -1862.37% YoY; EPS 3.08, down -1911.76% YoY → indicates a major YoY profit swing (likely impacted by non-operating items/reserves/investment impacts), and it raises uncertainty into the next print.
Takeaway: Growth in revenue is strong, but earnings quality/volatility is the key concern heading into tonight’s report.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Mixed-to-cautious. Multiple firms cut price targets in January (TD Cowen to 100 Hold; Barclays to 101 Equal Weight; BofA to 120 Buy but lowered; JPM to 105 Neutral). Some supportive raises earlier (Raymond James to 119 Outperform; Morgan Stanley to 120 Equal Weight).
Wall Street “pros”: Stronger longer-term earnings power narrative (per Raymond James), generally healthy balance sheets in the space, and some bullish Buy/Outperform coverage.
Wall Street “cons”: Concerns around sales growth (Japan/U.S.) capping longer-term growth (Mizuho Underperform), headwinds from lower alternative returns/spread dynamics, and overall valuation/upside looking less compelling near current price vs many targets.
Net read: Street view skews neutral overall at current levels (more Holds/Neutrals than Buys), supporting a hold rather than an aggressive buy right now.

11 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AFL stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AFL is 111.91 USD with a low forecast of 101 USD and a high forecast of 125 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

6 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

Current: 117.470

Low

101

Averages

111.91

High

125

Current: 117.470

Low

101

Averages

111.91

High

125

TD Cowen

Hold

downgrade

$102 -> $100

AI Analysis

2026-01-28

Reason

TD Cowen

Price Target

$102 -> $100

AI Analysis

2026-01-28

downgrade

Hold

Reason

TD Cowen lowered the firm's price target on Aflac to $100 from $102 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the life insurance group as part of a Q4 preview. TD sees a "slight headwind" from lower alternative returns heading into the prints. It retains a balanced sector view.

Barclays

Equal Weight

downgrade

$104 -> $101

2026-01-08

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$104 -> $101

2026-01-08

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Aflac to $101 from $104 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm is "cautiously optimistic" on life insurers heading into 2026, saying capital strength, cash flow, and consolidation offset headwinds like spread compression and technology spend. Barclays adjusted ratings and price targets as part of its 2026 outlook.

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AFL Should I Buy

AFL Should I Buy

Should You Buy Aflac Inc (AFL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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