Should I Buy ADUS? ADUS 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Addus Homecare Corp (ADUS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

105.880

1 Day change

-0.66%

52 Week Range

124.440

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: trend structure is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and momentum is only stabilizing, not turning up.
If you must act immediately, ADUS is closer to a hold/accumulate-on-strength than a clean buy; the chart needs a breakout above ~110.87 (R1) to confirm upside continuation.
Long-term backdrop is constructive (in-home care tailwinds, strong Q3 growth, mostly positive Street view), but current technicals don’t offer an obvious high-conviction entry today.

Technical Analysis

Price: 106.91 (near pivot 106.17), sitting in a decision zone rather than a clear launch point.
Trend: Bearish moving-average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) signals the broader trend remains down/weak.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.274 (below zero) but negatively contracting → downside momentum is easing, suggesting stabilization rather than a confirmed reversal.
RSI(6): 52.5 (neutral) → no overbought/oversold edge.
Levels to watch: Support S1 ~101.46 (then S2 ~98.56). Resistance R1 ~110.87 (then R2 ~113.77). A close above R1 would improve the “buy-now” case.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Neutral

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Very low open-interest put/call (0.16) leans bullish (more calls outstanding vs puts), but volume put/call is 1.0 (balanced) and total volume is tiny (4 contracts), so the read-through is weak.
Volatility: 30D IV ~~27 with IV percentile ~33.6 and low IV rank (~~7) → options market is not pricing a major near-term move.
Activity: Today’s volume is elevated vs 30-day average (57%+) but off a very low base; not a strong “crowd conviction” signal.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Fundamentals: 2025/Q3 delivered strong top-line growth and margin improvement (supports higher valuation over time).
- Sector tailwinds: Continued shift toward in-home care and a fragmented market supportive of M&A-led expansion (per analyst commentary).
- Upcoming event: Next earnings on 2026-02-26 (After Hours) with Street EPS est. ~1.53—potential catalyst if results/guide surprise positively.
- Pattern-based forward odds provided: modest bullish bias (model suggests +1.27% next week, +2.57% next month probabilities/expectations).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical overhang: Bearish MA structure suggests rallies can face supply until trend flips.
- Policy risk overhang: Medicaid funding cut concerns noted by BMO as a reason to stay cautious (headline-driven risk).
- No near-term news support: No positive catalyst in the past week to spark momentum.
- Ownership flows: Hedge funds and insiders flagged as neutral (no strong “smart money” follow-through signal).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 362.3M, +25.0% YoY (strong growth).
Net income: 22.85M, +13.3% YoY (profit growing, but slower than revenue).
EPS: 1.24, +12.7% YoY.
Gross margin: 31%, +1.21% YoY (incremental margin improvement supports durability of earnings).
Overall: Growth is solid and improving margins are a plus, but the market is currently not rewarding it with a bullish chart trend.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend: Recent Street activity is net positive with two bullish voices and one neutral initiations.
Truist (2026-01-07): Initiated Buy, PT $135 (secular tailwinds, favorable risk/reward).
RBC (2025-11-07): Outperform, PT raised to $139 (cites solid Q3 and organic growth).
BMO (2025-11-12): Market Perform, PT $120 (wants more clarity on Medicaid funding risk).
Wall St pros/cons view: Pros—category leadership, organic growth + M&A optionality, structural demand tailwinds. Cons—reimbursement/Medicaid policy sensitivity and the stock’s currently weak technical posture.

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ADUS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADUS is 133 USD with a low forecast of 117 USD and a high forecast of 147 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

1 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 106.580

Low

117

Averages

133

High

147

Current: 106.580

Low

117

Averages

133

High

147

Truist

Clarke Murphy

Buy

initiated

$135

AI Analysis

2026-01-07

Reason

Truist

Clarke Murphy

Price Target

$135

AI Analysis

2026-01-07

initiated

Buy

Reason

Truist analyst Clarke Murphy initiated coverage of Addus HomeCare with a Buy rating and $135 price target. The company is a leader in a "fragmented market with plenty of opportunity," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Addus will benefit from secular tailwinds from the more toward alternative sites. It believes the company has a strong earnings outlook with a favorable risk/reward at current levels.

BMO Capital

Market Perform

initiated

$120

2025-11-12

Reason

BMO Capital

Price Target

$120

2025-11-12

initiated

Market Perform

Reason

BMO Capital initiated coverage of Addus HomeCare with a Market Perform rating and $120 price target. The firm says it will look to get more constructive on the shares when concerns around Medicaid funding cuts start to ease. It remains positive on the longer-term macro shift toward in-home care, and Addus HomeCare's positioning.

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ADUS Should I Buy

ADUS Should I Buy

Should You Buy Addus Homecare Corp (ADUS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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