Should I Buy ADTN? ADTN 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy ADTRAN Holdings Inc (ADTN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

9.860

1 Day change

5.01%

52 Week Range

12.440

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the setup is mixed (bullish moving averages, but price is below the pivot and options flow is near-term bearish).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Prefer waiting for either (1) a reclaim/close above the 9.664 pivot with momentum, or (2) a cleaner pullback toward 9.20 support with stabilization—neither is confirmed now.
Event-driven focus: next notable catalyst is earnings (2026-02-25 after hours); without a signal or news momentum, risk/reward is not compelling today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/MAs: Bullish MA stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests the broader trend is improving.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0194 (below zero) but negatively contracting = downside momentum is fading, not yet reversed.
RSI(6): 55.846 (neutral) = no strong overbought/oversold edge.
Key levels: Pivot 9.664 (current price ~9.495 is below it = mild bearish/indecision). Support S1 9.198 then S2 8.91. Resistance R1 10.13 then R2 10.418.
Practical read: bulls have structure via moving averages, but the stock needs to reclaim 9.66–9.70 to turn the short-term tape decisively constructive.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment split: Open interest put/call 0.12 is call-heavy (more longer-dated bullish positioning), but today’s volume put/call 4.79 is strongly bearish (short-term hedging/speculation).
Activity/interest: Today’s option volume 168 is ~28.28x the 30-day average (unusually active), and today’s OI 13,237 is ~129.86% vs average—suggests a sentiment shift or positioning ahead of a catalyst.
Volatility: IV(30d) 62.68 vs HV 93.06; IV percentile 66.4 = options pricing is elevated, consistent with uncertainty; near-term flow is not supportive for an immediate buy.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Improving revenue trajectory: 2025/Q3 revenue +22.72% YoY.
- Profitability quality improving at the gross level: gross margin 38.34% (+5.13% YoY).
- Technical backdrop still constructive on a multi-week basis due to bullish moving-average alignment.
- Potential catalyst window: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-25 after hours (EPS est. 0.04).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings quality remains weak despite revenue growth: 2025/Q3 net income -$10.262M and EPS -0.13 (both down ~69% YoY).
- Short-term options flow is bearish (put-heavy volume), which often pressures price near-term.
- No supportive news momentum in the last week; absent catalysts, the stock may drift/chop below the pivot.
- Trading trends: hedge funds and insiders flagged as neutral (no strong “smart money” tailwind in the provided data).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $279.435M, +22.72% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income -$10.262M (worse YoY) and EPS -0.13 (worse YoY) = growth not yet translating to bottom-line improvement.
Margins: Gross margin 38.34%, up YoY, a constructive sign for future operating leverage if costs stabilize.
Near-term takeaway: fundamentals are improving on sales and gross margin, but the company is still loss-making—market may require confirmation in upcoming earnings.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

The provided analyst notes appear to reference Advanced Drainage, not ADTRAN (ADTN), indicating a likely data mismatch; therefore, they are not reliable for ADTN sentiment.
With no valid ADTN-specific rating/target trend in the dataset, the best read from “Wall Street” here is effectively neutral/insufficient data.
Pros view (based on available fundamentals): accelerating revenue and better gross margin.
Cons view: ongoing losses and unclear near-term momentum (also reflected by put-heavy option volume).

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ADTN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADTN is 13.4 USD with a low forecast of 11 USD and a high forecast of 16 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 9.390

Low

Averages

13.4

High

Current: 9.390

Low

Averages

13.4

High

UBS

Buy

upgrade

$183 -> $197

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$183 -> $197

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

upgrade

Buy

Reason

UBS raised the firm's price target on Advanced Drainage to $197 from $183 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

Barclays

Matthew Bouley

Overweight

maintain

$176 -> $181

2025-12-08

Reason

Barclays

Matthew Bouley

Price Target

$176 -> $181

2025-12-08

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Barclays analyst Matthew Bouley raised the firm's price target on Advanced Drainage to $181 from $176 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the homebuilding and building products group as part of its 2026 outlook. Barclays expects another year of declines in single-family housing starts, saying the housing market "remains far from balanced." This leaves the homebuilder stocks "volatile, with no cycle call to be made," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes building products and brokerage names can outperform despite weakness in new residential. It views building products and distributors as more compelling than homebuilders entering 2026.

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ADTN Should I Buy

ADTN Should I Buy

Should You Buy ADTRAN Holdings Inc (ADTN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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