Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: price action and trend indicators are still bearish with no proprietary buy signals.
Best near-term setup is a potential oversold bounce from support, but the downtrend is intact (higher risk of another leg down before a clean reversal).
Trend is bearish: moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating sustained downside pressure.
Momentum is weakening further: MACD histogram is negative (-0.029) and expanding to the downside.
Short-term condition is oversold/washed-out: RSI_6 at ~26.8 suggests selling may be stretched, which can allow a quick bounce—but not a confirmed trend reversal.
Key levels: Pivot 8.021 is the line to reclaim for improvement; near supports are S1 7.809 and S2 7.678 (price ~7.78 is sitting on/just below S1). Resistances: 8.233 then 8.364.
Pattern-based stats provided point to modest near-term drift but better 1-month odds (+6.76% next month), consistent with “oversold bounce” potential rather than a clean uptrend today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning skews bullish by open interest: put/call OI ratio 0.32 (calls dominate outstanding interest), suggesting longer-horizon sentiment leans constructive.
But today’s flow is more defensive: put/call volume ratio 1.31 (puts > calls), implying near-term caution/hedging.
Activity is elevated vs typical: today’s option volume is ~40.96% of 30-day average (not extreme), while today’s open interest vs avg is ~109.88% (slightly elevated engagement).
Volatility is not expensive: IV 30d 28.35 vs HV 31.79, with IV percentile 26 / IV rank 10.29—options are relatively cheap, consistent with muted fear but also limited urgency from buyers.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
near support (7.809 / 7.
can fuel a short-term rebound.
showed solid YoY growth in revenue, net income, and EPS.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Downtrend remains dominant (bearish MA stack + MACD negative and worsening), so bounce attempts can fail quickly.
Gross margin declined in 2025/Q3 (-2.36% YoY), a fundamental headwind.
No Intellectia proprietary buy signals today (reduces “must-buy-now” conviction).
Provided news summary is not ADT-specific (GameStop-focused), implying no clear company-specific bullish news catalyst currently in the dataset.
2025/Q3: Net income $145.1M (+14.14% YoY) and EPS $0.17 (+30.77% YoY), showing improving profitability per share.
2025/Q3: Gross margin 53.89% (down 2.36% YoY), signaling some pressure on unit economics despite earnings growth.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Most recent update: Morgan Stanley assumed coverage (2025-12-17) with Equal Weight and price target $9 (cut from $10).
Wall Street “pros” view (from the provided note): AI remains a key theme into 2026, but the group is bifurcating into leaders vs laggards—ADT is positioned more as a neutral/market-perform idea than a top pick.
Practical takeaway: PT $9 implies upside from ~$7.78, but the rating is not an outright bullish endorsement, aligning with a ‘not a buy-right-now’ stance given the current downtrend.
Wall Street analysts forecast ADT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADT is 9 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 9 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ADT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADT is 9 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 9 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 7.850
Low
9
Averages
9
High
9
Current: 7.850
Low
9
Averages
9
High
9
Morgan Stanley
analyst
Equal Weight
downgrade
$10 -> $9
AI Analysis
2025-12-17
Reason
Morgan Stanley
analyst
Price Target
$10 -> $9
AI Analysis
2025-12-17
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley assumed coverage of ADT Inc. with an Equal Weight rating and a price target of $9, down from $10. 2025 marked a shift in Info Services, bifurcating leaders and laggards in the group based on AI, notes the analyst, who assumes AI will continue to be an important theme in 2026 among the group.
Citi
Peter Christiansen
Buy
maintain
$9 -> $10
2025-08-26
Reason
Citi
Peter Christiansen
Price Target
$9 -> $10
2025-08-26
maintain
Buy
Reason
Citi analyst Peter Christiansen raised the firm's price target on ADT Inc. to $10 from $9 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm believes the company's decreased private equity ownership is driving increased attention in the shares. Citi sees further sales by private equity as a positive catalyst for ADT.
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